Event 575

{
  "border_violation_countries": [
    "SE",
    "BSR"
  ],
  "category": "Kinetic",
  "confidence": "Low",
  "confidence_rationale": "Headline, executive summary, and multiple details on the page and screenshot directly cite Russian strategic intentions and Western/Finnish concern, indicating strong evidence.",
  "continuous_since": "2023-01-01T12:00:00Z",
  "continuous_summary": "Russian rhetoric and signals regarding the Åland Islands as a target in a NATO conflict have accelerated since the deterioration of Russia-West relations over Ukraine, with increased frequency in public statements and exercises in the region throughout 2023 and 2024.",
  "countries": [
    "Finland",
    "Russia",
    "Baltic Sea Region",
    "Unknown"
  ],
  "country": "Finland",
  "defense_prep": {},
  "description": "Moscow is increasingly focusing on the demilitarized Åland Islands as a potential target in the event of a conflict with NATO, raising concerns among Finnish and Western authorities over the archipelago’s strategic position in the Baltic Sea.",
  "event_time_utc": "2024-09-25T12:00:00Z",
  "evidence": [
    "Executive summary references Moscow's increased rhetorical and strategic attention to Åland Islands as a NATO conflict target.",
    "Finnish and Western authorities express concern about Russia's focus and recent military exercises.",
    "Cited Russian warnings about changing Åland’s demilitarized status and Western moves."
  ],
  "evidence_quotes": [
    "Moscow is focusing on the Åland Islands as a potential target in the event of a conflict with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) over line.",
    "The Russian attention has called in Helsinki and the area’s military, but the Finnish government remains wary.",
    "Russian commentaries note that the Åland islands’ demilitarized and Russian naval exercise zones near them could change the status and make them a new hot spot in East-West relations.",
    "Recent Russian statements warn that any change in the islands’ international status or NATO-aligned activities could provoke a response."
  ],
  "extra": {
    "category_raw": "Strategic Target Identification",
    "extra": {
      "extra": {
        "extra": {
          "evidence": [
            "Executive summary references Moscow's increased rhetorical and strategic attention to Åland Islands as a NATO conflict target.",
            "Finnish and Western authorities express concern about Russia's focus and recent military exercises.",
            "Cited Russian warnings about changing Åland’s demilitarized status and Western moves."
          ]
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "follow_up_by_country": [],
  "follow_up_notes": "??Moscow focusing on  land Islands as target in war with NATO",
  "headline": "Moscow Focusing on Åland Islands as Target in Event of War With NATO",
  "is_continuous": true,
  "location_text": "Åland Islands, Finland",
  "media_assets": [
    {
      "description": "Screenshot capture",
      "type": "screenshot",
      "url": "/media/event_575_1763931399_a53a55a4.jpg"
    }
  ],
  "notes": "??Moscow focusing on  land Islands as target in war with NATO",
  "schema_version": "v1",
  "screenshot_count": 1,
  "sources": [
    "https://jamestown.org/program/moscow-focusing-on-aland-islands-as-target-in-event-of-war-with-nato/"
  ],
  "summary_short": "Russia considers the Åland Islands a likely target for military action if conflict with NATO breaks out, given their neutral, demilitarized status and strategic location in the Baltic Sea.",
  "url": "https://jamestown.org/program/moscow-focusing-on-aland-islands-as-target-in-event-of-war-with-nato/"
}

{
  "5th Column of Russians Inside (which countries)": "",
  "Attack Type": "Strategic target identification",
  "Borders Including Sea, Air,  Violation or Sabotage (which countries)": "SE BSR",
  "Continuous? (e.g. Jammers)": "",
  "Country (FI;EE;LV;LT;PL;BSR;Air)\nSeparated by Semicolon": "BSR;( land Islands)",
  "Date": "25-Sep-24",
  "Defense Prep Event (FI-EE-LV-LT-PL)": "",
  "Defense Prep Event (FI-EE-LV-LT-PL) REF LINK": "",
  "Follow-Up Link?  (FI,EE,LV,LT,PL, BSR, Air)": "https://jamestown.org/program/moscow-focusing-on-aland-islands-as-target-in-event-of-war-with-nato/",
  "Follow-Up NOTES": "",
  "Follow-Up incl. Investigation, Prosecution?  (FI,EE,LV,LT,PL, BSR, Air)": "??Moscow focusing on  land Islands as target in war with NATO",
  "Latitude, Longitude (WGS84, Decimal Degrees)": "",
  "NOTES": "??Moscow focusing on  land Islands as target in war with NATO",
  "Political Disruptions w/ Laws to Favor Kremlin (which countries)": "",
  "Russian-Belarus Terrorist Event (FI-EE-LV-LT-PL)": "",
  "Russian-Belarus Terrorist Event (FI-EE-LV-LT-PL) REF LINK": "",
  "Screen Snapshot": "",
  "Screen Snapshots": "",
  "Type Dropdown": "",
  "Where?\n(Air, Land, Sea)": ""
}