Event 764

{
  "border_violation_countries": [
    "LV",
    "LT",
    "PL",
    "BY"
  ],
  "category": "Kinetic",
  "confidence": "Low",
  "confidence_rationale": "Statements originate from both Ukrainian presidential and Belarusian military sources; timing and drill details align with prior Russian-Belarusian exercise patterns, and the post directly quotes Zelenskyy.",
  "countries": [
    "Belarus",
    "Russia",
    "Ukraine",
    "Poland",
    "Lithuania",
    "Latvia"
  ],
  "country": "Belarus",
  "defense_prep": {},
  "description": "Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Putin will deploy Russian forces to Belarus in 2025 as part of the West-2025 military drills, possibly using Belarus for intimidation of Poland, Lithuania, and other Baltic states. The drills may involve Russian Armed Forces arriving in Belarus and are seen as a provocation and potential hybrid threat toward neighboring NATO/EU countries.",
  "event_time_utc": "2025-02-05T12:00:00Z",
  "evidence": [
    "Direct statements from President Zelenskyy",
    "Confirmation of West-2025 drills by Belarusian military officials",
    "Timing and context confirmed via post timestamp and explicit drill mention"
  ],
  "evidence_quotes": [
    "Zelensky: Putin will deploy his forces in Belarus this year. This could be about the West-2025 drills",
    "Putin is going to drag Belarus into war. According to him, Putin may choose Poland or the Baltic states as his next target.",
    "he will deploy forces on the territory of Belarus. And many Europeans ... will say that this is intimidation, intimidation of Poland, intimidation of Lithuania and our other Baltic partners.",
    "the deployment of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus ... as part of the West-2025 Russian-Belarusian drills.",
    "Commander of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense Forces A. Lukyanovich said that \"joint strategic drills\" would be held in Belarus in September 2025."
  ],
  "extra": {
    "category_raw": "Possible Fake Military Exercise",
    "extra": {
      "extra": {
        "extra": {
          "evidence": [
            "Direct statements from President Zelenskyy",
            "Confirmation of West-2025 drills by Belarusian military officials",
            "Timing and context confirmed via post timestamp and explicit drill mention"
          ]
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "follow_up_by_country": [],
  "headline": "Zelensky: Putin will deploy his forces in Belarus this year. This could be about the West-2025 drills",
  "location_text": "Belarus",
  "media_assets": [
    {
      "description": "Screenshot capture",
      "type": "screenshot",
      "url": "/media/event_764_1763937684_14d7b7a2.jpg"
    }
  ],
  "notes": "Possible pretext for troop build-up in ??Belarus to strike NATO",
  "schema_version": "v1",
  "screenshot_count": 1,
  "sources": [
    "https://x.com/Hajun_BY/status/1887202059826630729"
  ],
  "summary_short": "Zelenskyy warns of Russian troop deployment to Belarus in advance of West-2025 drills; potential provocation toward Poland and the Baltic States.",
  "url": "https://x.com/Hajun_BY/status/1887202059826630729"
}

{
  "5th Column of Russians Inside (which countries)": "",
  "Attack Type": "Possible Fake military exercise",
  "Borders Including Sea, Air,  Violation or Sabotage (which countries)": "LV LT PL BY",
  "Continuous? (e.g. Jammers)": "",
  "Country (FI;EE;LV;LT;PL;BSR;Air)\nSeparated by Semicolon": "LV;LT;PL",
  "Date": "5-Feb-25",
  "Defense Prep Event (FI-EE-LV-LT-PL)": "",
  "Defense Prep Event (FI-EE-LV-LT-PL) REF LINK": "",
  "Follow-Up Link?  (FI,EE,LV,LT,PL, BSR, Air)": "",
  "Follow-Up NOTES": "",
  "Follow-Up incl. Investigation, Prosecution?  (FI,EE,LV,LT,PL, BSR, Air)": "",
  "Latitude, Longitude (WGS84, Decimal Degrees)": "",
  "NOTES": "Possible pretext for troop build-up in ??Belarus to strike NATO",
  "Political Disruptions w/ Laws to Favor Kremlin (which countries)": "",
  "Russian-Belarus Terrorist Event (FI-EE-LV-LT-PL)": "Zelenskyy: ??Russia may fake ??Belarus drill. About ZAPAD-2025.",
  "Russian-Belarus Terrorist Event (FI-EE-LV-LT-PL) REF LINK": "https://x.com/Hajun_BY/status/1887202059826630729",
  "Screen Snapshot": "",
  "Screen Snapshots": "",
  "Type Dropdown": "",
  "Where?\n(Air, Land, Sea)": ""
}