Event 771

{
  "border_violation_countries": [
    "BSR"
  ],
  "category": "Uncategorized",
  "confidence": "Low",
  "confidence_rationale": "Several charts, data tables, and step-wise probability calculations are presented. The author uses domain knowledge, maritime records, and specific pipeline/cable incidents. The argument is made with data visualizations and model documentation.",
  "country": "Baltic Sea Region",
  "defense_prep": {},
  "description": "A technical analysis arguing that the odds of subsea cables in the Baltic Sea being severed by accident (e.g., an anchor) are very low, implying that recent breakages are unlikely accidental and more likely due to deliberate actions.",
  "event_time_utc": "2025-02-15T12:00:00Z",
  "evidence": [
    "Charts show historic frequency of submarine cable/pipeline breaks from anchor accidents is extremely low.",
    "Yearly break odds and Poisson calculations provided, showing improbability of multiple recent events.",
    "Comparison of recent break spate to decades of previous Baltic Sea data.",
    "Discussion explicitly contrasts accidental vs. deliberate causality, favoring the latter."
  ],
  "evidence_quotes": [
    "There is a new thread in which I do the odds you chance should all of the new Baltic Sea #BalticConnector incidents be nonaccidental.",
    "Summary odds for Baltic Sea anchor accident causing a cable or pipeline cut somewhere is 0.003 per year per km.",
    "The odds that 2 such accidents would happen in the same year is vanishingly small unless there is some other process at work, presumably deliberate action.",
    "Based on the data, the recent breaks are almost certainly not random anchor strikes.",
    "My conclusion is: it is very unlikely that so many cable and pipeline breaks would be caused by random accidents in such a short time span."
  ],
  "extra": {
    "extra": {
      "extra": {
        "extra": {
          "evidence": [
            "Charts show historic frequency of submarine cable/pipeline breaks from anchor accidents is extremely low.",
            "Yearly break odds and Poisson calculations provided, showing improbability of multiple recent events.",
            "Comparison of recent break spate to decades of previous Baltic Sea data.",
            "Discussion explicitly contrasts accidental vs. deliberate causality, favoring the latter."
          ]
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "follow_up_by_country": [],
  "follow_up_notes": "Statistical unlikelihood of cable breaks. Statistics calculation thread by auonsson",
  "headline": "Odds of Baltic Sea Cable Breaks: Deliberate Action Far More Likely Than Accident",
  "media_assets": [
    {
      "description": "Screenshot capture",
      "type": "screenshot",
      "url": "/media/event_771_1763937906_e5ba3b50.jpg"
    }
  ],
  "notes": "Estimation: chance of coincidence in Baltic cable breaks extremely low",
  "schema_version": "v1",
  "screenshot_count": 1,
  "sources": [
    "https://skywriter.blue/pages/did:plc:d56aevbrhhknlxhjisuouofm/post/3liaanrjq6k2s"
  ],
  "summary_short": "Statistical analysis shows anchor accidents are highly unlikely to explain recent Baltic Sea cable breaks, pointing toward deliberate sabotage.",
  "url": "https://skywriter.blue/pages/did:plc:d56aevbrhhknlxhjisuouofm/post/3liaanrjq6k2s"
}

{
  "5th Column of Russians Inside (which countries)": "",
  "Attack Type": "",
  "Borders Including Sea, Air,  Violation or Sabotage (which countries)": "BSR",
  "Continuous? (e.g. Jammers)": "",
  "Country (FI;EE;LV;LT;PL;BSR;Air)\nSeparated by Semicolon": "BSR",
  "Date": "15-Feb-25",
  "Defense Prep Event (FI-EE-LV-LT-PL)": "",
  "Defense Prep Event (FI-EE-LV-LT-PL) REF LINK": "",
  "Follow-Up Link?  (FI,EE,LV,LT,PL, BSR, Air)": "https://skywriter.blue/pages/did:plc:d56aevbrhhknlxhjisuouofm/post/3liaanrjq6k2s",
  "Follow-Up NOTES": "",
  "Follow-Up incl. Investigation, Prosecution?  (FI,EE,LV,LT,PL, BSR, Air)": "Statistical unlikelihood of cable breaks. Statistics calculation thread by auonsson",
  "Latitude, Longitude (WGS84, Decimal Degrees)": "",
  "NOTES": "Estimation: chance of coincidence in Baltic cable breaks extremely low",
  "Political Disruptions w/ Laws to Favor Kremlin (which countries)": "",
  "Russian-Belarus Terrorist Event (FI-EE-LV-LT-PL)": "",
  "Russian-Belarus Terrorist Event (FI-EE-LV-LT-PL) REF LINK": "",
  "Screen Snapshot": "",
  "Screen Snapshots": "",
  "Type Dropdown": "",
  "Where?\n(Air, Land, Sea)": ""
}