Event 3d0d1627-f9ed-4429-a450-62a6b8df989c

Healthy processed event from Hybrid War Tracker

Status: Healthy (Processed) Last Updated: 2026-02-14 Confidence: High Classification: Military & Paramilitary Operations > Unconventional / Paramilitary > Use of 'little green men' (unmarked soldiers) Country: France Where: Land Node: Node 1: Borders Node: Node 2: 5th Column Tag: Russian hybrid warfare Tag: assassination attempt Tag: covert operations Tag: European intelligence Tag: Biarritz Tag: Dagestan suspects Tag: drone incursions Tag: sabotage Tag: political destabilization Tag: Ukraine support Tag: Rheinmetall Tag: Christo Grozev Tag: 2025 Tag: Europe Aggressor Defense Confidence: High
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Event Time
5mo ago
Created
17h ago
✏️
Updated
14h ago

Summary

Headline: European intelligence agencies prepare for escalation of Russian hybrid attacks, including assassination attempt in France

Short Summary: Throughout 2025, European intelligence agencies noted a decrease in Russian hybrid warfare attacks compared to 2024 but remain alert for a possible resurgence in 2026. Incidents include sabotage, drone incursions, and political assassinations. A high-profile case on September 12 involved an attempted assassination of Vladimir Osechkin in Biarritz, France, employing laser targeting methods. French authorities charged four Dagestan nationals connected to the attempt. Other covert operations targeted defense industry leadership and journalists in Europe, illustrating Russia's multifaceted covert campaign. Experts emphasize these actions serve to pressure European societies and erode support for Ukraine. With upcoming elections and fragile diplomatic talks, intelligence agencies prepare for potential intensified hybrid attacks, while successes in preventing some attacks indicate improved security measures.

Extended Summary: Throughout 2025, European intelligence agencies noted a decrease in Russian hybrid warfare attacks compared to 2024 but remain alert for a possible resurgence in 2026. Incidents include sabotage, drone incursions, and political assassinations. A high-profile case on September 12 involved an attempted assassination of Vladimir Osechkin in Biarritz, France, employing laser targeting methods. French authorities charged four Dagestan nationals connected to the attempt. Other covert operations targeted defense industry leadership and journalists in Europe, illustrating Russia's multifaceted covert campaign. Experts emphasize these actions serve to pressure European societies and erode support for Ukraine. With upcoming elections and fragile diplomatic talks, intelligence agencies prepare for potential intensified hybrid attacks, while successes in preventing some attacks indicate improved security measures.

Description

In 2025, European intelligence agencies have been preparing for a potential escalation of Russian hybrid warfare attacks. Despite a decline in hybrid incidents compared to 2024, tense covert operations continue, including sabotage, drone incursions at Copenhagen and Oslo airports, and attempted assassinations. Notably, on September 12, 2025, an assassination attempt targeted human rights defender Vladimir Osechkin in Biarritz, France, involving a small red laser dot used to presumably guide a sniper or other weapon. French authorities charged four individuals from Dagestan in connection with this attempt. Additional covert operations targeted the CEO of German defense company Rheinmetall and involved coordinated kidnapping attempts of journalist Christo Grozev in the UK. Experts highlight that these deniable actions aim to destabilize European societies and weaken political support for Ukraine. Analysts warn that if diplomatic negotiations fail or US support for Ukraine wanes, Russia may escalate hybrid warfare with increased attacks and influence operations in 2026 ahead of key European elections. European intelligence successes in thwarting attacks, including explosive parcels via DHL, demonstrate improved defense capabilities, but risks remain significant.

Event Classification

Aggressor Event Defense Preparation Event

Rationale

The article clearly describes Russian hybrid warfare aggressor activities, including an assassination attempt and other covert operations, while also detailing European intelligence agency preparations and successful defenses against these threats.