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Headline: Expert Kaupo Rosin states that Russia currently has no intent to attack any Baltic state or NATO, noting changed Russian behavior after recent incidents and emphasizing the need for sustained defense investments.
Short Summary: In late 2025, Estonia's security assessment highlights that Russia currently has no intent to launch attacks against Baltic states or NATO. Russian military behavior has changed following NATO's reactions to prior incidents such as underwater cable sabotage and drone airspace incursions. Notably, in September 2025, a significant internal defense exercise took place near the Estonian-Russian border in the Saatse 'saabas' area, where Russian forces increased activities involving a small group of soldiers causing local alarm, prompting rapid Estonian infrastructure responses. Russia appears to carefully manage its military presence to avoid public conflict escalation, respecting NATO airspace and carefully planning troop movements. Intelligence indicates ongoing Russian intelligence, sabotage, and hybrid tactics aimed at destabilizing Ukraine mainly, with some spillover concern for Baltic neighbors. Economic sanctions continue impacting Russian resources and constrain their war industry, reportedly increasing internal pressure. NATO and Estonia continue investing heavily in defense to maintain deterrence. Overall, the security environment remains tense, but no escalation toward direct attack on Baltic states is currently assessed.
Extended Summary: In late 2025, Estonia's security assessment highlights that Russia currently has no intent to launch attacks against Baltic states or NATO. Russian military behavior has changed following NATO's reactions to prior incidents such as underwater cable sabotage and drone airspace incursions. Notably, in September 2025, a significant internal defense exercise took place near the Estonian-Russian border in the Saatse 'saabas' area, where Russian forces increased activities involving a small group of soldiers causing local alarm, prompting rapid Estonian infrastructure responses. Russia appears to carefully manage its military presence to avoid public conflict escalation, respecting NATO airspace and carefully planning troop movements. Intelligence indicates ongoing Russian intelligence, sabotage, and hybrid tactics aimed at destabilizing Ukraine mainly, with some spillover concern for Baltic neighbors. Economic sanctions continue impacting Russian resources and constrain their war industry, reportedly increasing internal pressure. NATO and Estonia continue investing heavily in defense to maintain deterrence. Overall, the security environment remains tense, but no escalation toward direct attack on Baltic states is currently assessed.
On December 29, 2025, Kaupo Rosin, an expert interviewed by ERR, assessed the security situation regarding Russia and the Baltic region. He stated that Russia presently has no plans to attack any Baltic state or NATO member and that Russian behavior has adjusted following recent incidents such as underwater cable sabotage and unauthorized drone flights, due to Western and NATO responses. Rosin highlighted that Russian military aircraft now strictly follow controlled flight paths over the Baltic Sea to avoid incidents. He noted that incidents like the cable sabotage ceased after NATO missions began, although risks remain high due to ongoing war in Ukraine. Rosin stressed that Russia aims primarily to maintain freedom of movement for its shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea to secure income, despite some Western military actions affecting it. He evaluated Estonia's response to two main sabotage/hybrid incidents in 2025 as adequate and highlighted the broader regional security environment, including increased Russian border activities and espionage efforts. Rosin stressed the importance of naming hostile acts clearly (e.g., sabotage or cyberattack rather than 'hybrid') to avoid downplaying threats. Looking forward, he predicted Russian efforts to slow European rearmament via political and societal influence campaigns. Rosin emphasized that Russia respects NATO and that it is crucial for Estonia, the EU, and NATO to continue investing in defense to maintain the current deterrence balance. He also noted the cumulative impact of sanctions on Russia's resources and the importance of sustaining them. This assessment includes specific references to incidents such as the 12-minute unauthorized Russian aircraft presence over Estonia and the 'Saatse Boot' border incident, as well as espionage cases involving recruited individuals near Narva. Rosin underlined that physical sabotage directed against Ukrainian support lines is state-sanctioned and ongoing, with attempts to mask attribution.
The event involves explicit discussion of Russian hostile hybrid tactics and sabotage targeting Estonia and the Baltic region, as well as evaluation of NATO and Estonian defensive reactions and the necessity of continued defense investments.
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