Event bb4725b4-3bec-4f14-8a17-cd677e1f8c31

Healthy processed event from Hybrid War Tracker

Status: Healthy (Processed) Last Updated: 2026-02-15 Confidence: High Classification: Military & Paramilitary Operations > Unconventional / Paramilitary > Proxy forces, militias, mercenaries (e.g. Wagner-type groups) Country: Estonia Where: Land Node: Node 1: Borders Tag: Russian hybrid warfare Tag: Estonia Tag: Intelligence operations Tag: Arson attack Tag: Critical infrastructure Tag: Russian espionage Tag: Security legislation Tag: Baltic Sea cooperation Tag: NATO countermeasures Aggressor Defense Confidence: High
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Event Time
1mo ago
Created
2d ago
✏️
Updated
1d ago

Summary

Headline: Expert: Russian hybrid attacks are becoming more dangerous

Short Summary: Experts warn that Russia is intensifying hybrid attacks in Europe using new tactics, including criminal recruits, posing greater risks to civilians and critical infrastructure.

Description

Russian hybrid attack capabilities in Europe are rapidly strengthening and becoming more dangerous, according to Marek Kohv, a research fellow at the International Center for Defense and Security. Russia's hybrid capabilities were weakened in 2022 due to expulsions of spies under diplomatic cover but are now being rebuilt with new tactics, including recruiting individuals with criminal backgrounds and ordinary social media users. Such recruits often lack training in firearms or explosives, resulting in potentially higher civilian casualties when they carry out attacks such as arson. Attribution and prosecution are complicated because recruits may not be aware of their ties to Russian intelligence. Estonia has strengthened its internal security legislation to punish intent to cooperate with Russian intelligence. Igor Gretskiy, another fellow, predicts increased hybrid attacks by Russia aimed at stirring conflict and division among countries supporting Ukraine. Russia is also reportedly monitoring and mapping critical infrastructure such as railways and bridges in Europe, evoking Cold War-era sabotage doctrines. Kohv emphasized the need for updated international legal frameworks and closer Baltic Sea cooperation to protect underwater infrastructure. Estonia's foreign intelligence chief stated Russia is not currently planning an attack on Baltic states and recognized NATO's effective countermeasures.

Event Classification

Aggressor Event Defense Preparation Event

Rationale

The event describes Russian hybrid aggression using criminal and social media recruited agents and predictions of intensification, as well as Estonia raising defenses through legal reforms and NATO counteractions.