Event c9bed78d-2cec-486f-89a9-107bbf604e19

Approved event from Hybrid War Tracker

Status: Approved Confidence: High Classification: Military & Paramilitary Operations > Conventional Military Pressure Country: Lithuania Where: Land Tag: Lithuania Tag: Russia Tag: NATO Tag: Military Build-up Tag: National Defence Tag: Kaliningrad Tag: Belarus Tag: Hybrid Warfare Tag: Cyber Defence Tag: EU Funding Tag: German Brigade Deployment Tag: US Troops Tag: Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union Tag: HIMARS Tag: CV90 Infantry Fighting Vehicle Tag: Artillery Tag: Military Mobility Tag: Ukraine Support Aggressor Defense Confidence: High

Source: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/01/15/lithuania-on-t ...

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Event Time

➕

Created

✏️

Updated

Summary

Headline: Lithuania on the frontline: How a small EU country is preparing for a possible war

Short Summary: Lithuania is significantly ramping up military capabilities and allied presence on its territory in response to increasing Russian aggression risks, while enhancing societal resilience against hybrid threats in 2026.

Extended Summary: Lithuania, a NATO and EU member bordering Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus, perceives a rising military threat from Russia over the next 3-5 years, informed by Russia's military buildup and use of force in Ukraine. Lithuanian Vice-minister of National Defence Karolis Aleksa emphasized the Kremlin’s intent to reshape European security by force. Lithuania has seen an intensified NATO presence since 2022, with permanent deployment of a German brigade planned by 2027, alongside ongoing US troop presence and contributions from the Netherlands and Norway across land, air, and maritime domains. Lithuania is rapidly upgrading infrastructure to host these forces and enhance air defense capabilities. Nationally, Lithuania aims to establish a fully operational national division by 2030, investing billions euros in tanks, CV90 infantry fighting vehicles, German and French artillery, and US HIMARS rocket artillery to ensure interoperability with NATO. The Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union, a volunteer force similar to a national guard, has nearly doubled in membership to 18,000, illustrating societal commitment to defense. Defence spending is about 5% of GDP in 2026, and public support for NATO forces and military investment remains high. Lithuania also addresses hybrid threats like cyberattacks, disinformation, and sabotage, particularly from Russia and Belarus, investing in cyber defense and societal resilience. The EU supports Lithuania via substantial funding (up to €6.3 billion by 2030) and regulatory reforms to boost defense industry and military mobility. Lithuania continues strong military and production support for Ukraine, considering its resistance the first line of defense for Europe. Lithuanian officials urge persistent deterrence efforts and caution against complacency, emphasizing that preparedness and collective defense are essential to counter revisionist powers.

Description

Lithuania, bordering Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus, is intensifying its military and societal preparedness for a possible war with Russia amidst rising threat perceptions following the Ukraine conflict. The country focuses on national defense build-up, NATO allied presence, and hybrid threat resilience.

Event Classification

Aggressor Event Defense Preparation Event

Rationale

The event describes Russia as the hostile aggressor, with explicit mention of Russian military buildup, hybrid threats, and intent to employ force. Simultaneously, Lithuania and its NATO allies are undertaking significant defense preparations including military modernization, increased NATO troop deployments, infrastructure upgrades, and investments in cyber defense and societal resilience.

Evidence

Quotes

'Russia has demonstrated both the will and the readiness to employ military force to pursue its goals,' — Karolis Aleksa, Lithuanian Vice-minister of National Defence.

'This is about defending from the first inch of our territory... a collective effort,' Aleksa on NATO’s role in Lithuania.

'We are not just buying platforms... interoperable, ready to fight by the end of 2030 units,' Aleksa on Lithuania’s defense modernization.

'The Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union membership has grown from around 10,000 in 2021 to more than 18,000 today,' according to Aleksa.

'This year, Lithuania will spend about 5% of its GDP on defence. Public support for allies and military investment is high,' — official data cited.

'We already see these methods being used... future conflicts may begin without tanks crossing borders,' Aleksa on hybrid threats.

'The EU will provide a significant share of funding through safe loans, allowing Lithuania to access up to €6.3 billion by 2030,' — Aleksa.

Source

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/01/15/lithuania-on-the-frontline-how-a-small-eu-country-is-preparing-for-a-possible-war