Event dc1954bb-7cc3-44ce-a6bb-119a5ffab31a

Approved event from Hybrid War Tracker

Status: Approved Confidence: Low Category: Uncategorized Country: Baltic Sea Region

Source: https://skywriter.blue/pages/did:plc:d56aevbrhhknlxhjisuouof...

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Event Time

10mo ago

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Created

1mo ago

✏️

Updated

1mo ago

Summary

Headline: Odds of Baltic Sea Cable Breaks: Deliberate Action Far More Likely Than Accident

Short Summary: Statistical analysis shows anchor accidents are highly unlikely to explain recent Baltic Sea cable breaks, pointing toward deliberate sabotage.

Description

A technical analysis arguing that the odds of subsea cables in the Baltic Sea being severed by accident (e.g., an anchor) are very low, implying that recent breakages are unlikely accidental and more likely due to deliberate actions.

Evidence

Quotes

There is a new thread in which I do the odds you chance should all of the new Baltic Sea #BalticConnector incidents be nonaccidental.

Summary odds for Baltic Sea anchor accident causing a cable or pipeline cut somewhere is 0.003 per year per km.

The odds that 2 such accidents would happen in the same year is vanishingly small unless there is some other process at work, presumably deliberate action.

Based on the data, the recent breaks are almost certainly not random anchor strikes.

My conclusion is: it is very unlikely that so many cable and pipeline breaks would be caused by random accidents in such a short time span.

Source

https://skywriter.blue/pages/did:plc:d56aevbrhhknlxhjisuouofm/post/3liaanrjq6k2s