Russia is likely deploying captured Ukrainian drones for provocations, including potential false-flag attacks against Poland and NATO, raising hybrid warfare threat levels.

Russia has likely started using captured Ukrainian long-range drones for provocations. Evidence includes imagery shared by a Ukrainian defense technology advisor showing a drone matching Ukrainian FP-1/2 drone characteristics. Russian forces may have obtained such drones after their forced landing due to electronic warfare or technical failures, subsequently repairing, reprogramming them, or creating copies. A related incident occurred on June 8, 2026, when a drone crossed into Moldova and exploded near Lopatna village; debris bore Ukrainian markings, but Ukraine claimed it was a Russian drone. Poland's defense minister warned in July 2026 that Russia had captured a significant number of Ukrainian drones and could use them for false-flag provocations against Poland and NATO states to sow political discord. This follows an incident on July 30, 2026, when a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile entered about 100 km into Polish territory and crashed in Lublin Voivodeship. Polish intelligence estimates potential Russian hybrid or armed provocations aiming to test NATO resolve and disrupt Western support for Ukraine. The threat from Russia remains very high, and societal complacency is discouraged.