A multi-day wargaming simulation on October 8-10, 2026, conducted by Baltic International Security Centre (BISC) and ISM University of Management and Economics in Vilnius examined three hypothetical Kaliningrad crisis scenarios in 2027: (1) social unrest with limited military mutiny amid supply disruptions, (2) a sudden military uprising forcing Moscow onto a defensive posture, and (3) an industrial fire causing an environmental disaster. The exercise involved 20 experts and former officials playing three teams representing Russia/Kaliningrad/Belarus, Lithuania/Poland/Germany/Nordic countries, and insurgents respectively. The simulation revealed Russia's vulnerabilities in Kaliningrad due to supply chain disruptions, internal dissent among troops, and dependency on Western help to contain crises. Lithuania, Poland, and allies coordinated effectively to stop insurgents from breaking through to Belarus and managed border security with support requests declined. The exercise highlighted gaps in communication among participants and stressed the autonomous crisis response capabilities of Baltic/Nordic states despite Russian attempts to maintain political control and blame neighbors. Organizer Edward Lucas labeled Kaliningrad a Russian Achilles' heel rather than a fortress, emphasizing Moscow's operational constraints and the region's strategic importance. Scenarios assumed ongoing Ukraine conflict and cyber attacks disrupting Russian fuel supplies to Kaliningrad. The simulation is explicitly a hypothetical wargame and does not reflect forecasts or official policies.

A multi-day wargaming simulation on October 8-10, 2026, conducted by Baltic International Security Centre (BISC) and ISM University of Management and Economics in Vilnius examined three hypothetical Kaliningrad crisis scenarios in 2027: (1) social unrest with limited military mutiny amid supply disruptions, (2) a sudden military uprising forcing Moscow onto a defensive posture, and (3) an industrial fire causing an environmental disaster. The exercise involved 20 experts and former officials playing three teams representing Russia/Kaliningrad/Belarus, Lithuania/Poland/Germany/Nordic countries, and insurgents respectively. The simulation revealed Russia's vulnerabilities in Kaliningrad due to supply chain disruptions, internal dissent among troops, and dependency on Western help to contain crises. Lithuania, Poland, and allies coordinated effectively to stop insurgents from breaking through to Belarus and managed border security with support requests declined. The exercise highlighted gaps in communication among participants and stressed the autonomous crisis response capabilities of Baltic/Nordic states despite Russian attempts to maintain political control and blame neighbors. Organizer Edward Lucas labeled Kaliningrad a Russian Achilles' heel rather than a fortress, emphasizing Moscow's operational constraints and the region's strategic importance. Scenarios assumed ongoing Ukraine conflict and cyber attacks disrupting Russian fuel supplies to Kaliningrad. The simulation is explicitly a hypothetical wargame and does not reflect forecasts or official policies.