Latvia is Belarus' primary hybrid warfare target in 2026, facing increased migrant pressure and aggressive smugglers at the eastern border, with enhanced cooperation between Border Guard and National Armed Forces and a call for increased personnel and technology funding.

Latvia is the primary target of Belarus’s hybrid warfare efforts in 2026, focusing on the eastern border. Guntis Pujāts, commander of the State Border Guard, reported on July 9 that migrant smugglers have become more aggressive, necessitating increased cooperation with the National Armed Forces. In 2026, 7,600 attempts to cross the Belarus–Latvia border illegally were prevented, a significant increase from the previous year. Latvia’s steadfast support for Ukraine and condemnation of Russian aggression, coupled with Russian propaganda and the upcoming Saeima elections, raise the hybrid warfare threat. Lithuania is also facing increased secondary migration from Latvia. Latvia’s State Border Guard calls for prioritizing border security, strengthening social benefits, and increasing personnel. The Ministry of Defence has been requested to provide more personnel to secure the border from the first centimeter. The National Armed Forces have supported border security for five years, with over 4 million euros allocated; a further 40 million euros is planned over four years to enhance border guard capabilities and technology.