Russia and Belarus are conducting a multi-domain hybrid warfare campaign against the Baltic Sea Region and Eastern Flank countries, involving school bomb threats, border sabotage, migrant weaponization, infrastructure attacks, cyber operations, and 5th column propaganda to destabilize regional unity and support for Ukraine.

From October to November 2023, Russian hybrid warfare escalated in the Baltic region, targeting countries including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and Poland through multiple coordinated actions. These include repeated bomb threats against hundreds of schools and preschools in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland, suspected to be orchestrated by Russian FSB to discredit Baltic governments and sow discord. Border sabotage occurred notably at Baltic Sea infrastructure, including damage to the Estonia-Sweden communications cable and the Estonia-Finland Balticconnector pipeline, which investigations preliminarily confirmed as man-made. Migrant flows orchestrated by Russia and Belarus intensified pressures on eastern borders, with 11,000 migrants blocked by Latvia alone in 2023, and similar issues appearing in Finland and Poland, weaponized to destabilize border security. Russian-aligned 5th column activities inside Finland were detected, including protests in Helsinki against border closures and propaganda efforts. Political disruptions with policy changes affecting border controls and vehicle restrictions further complicated the security environment. Overall, the events depict a multi-step Russian hybrid warfare campaign involving sabotage, psychological operations via bomb threats, migrant weaponization, and internal influence efforts aimed at fracturing Baltic and Nordic unity and diverting NATO attention from Ukraine. This ongoing hybrid campaign demonstrates the complexity and breadth of Russian hostile measures in the region.