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Signal
Submitted
Feb 1, 2026, 00:14 UTC
Russia pursues a permanent hybrid war strategy against Europe, using tactics from drone incursions to disinformation to weaken Western influence and maintain regional control.
The article discusses Russia's evolving strategy described as a permanent state of hybrid war encompassing military, cyber, political, and information tactics targeting Europe and Ukraine's allies. It highlights incidents such as drone incursions into Poland, fighter jets entering NATO airspace, election interference in Romania and Moldova, and disinformation campaigns in the UK. The Kremlin's broader goal is to weaken Western unity, particularly EU and NATO cohesion, to regain influence lost since the Cold War, especially in post-Soviet states and regions like the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia's military expenditure is far smaller than the EU's combined defense spending, limiting its conventional power but compensated for by extensive hybrid tools. The strategy involves creating chaos and instability to undermine European democratic institutions and sustaining a narrative of Russian security needs while exploiting local political divisions. The 2025 Valdai Club report described this approach as Russia pursuing permanent 'relations of chaos and disorder' to strengthen its geopolitical position. Analysts warn that while Western support for Ukraine remains strong, Russia's hybrid war will continue to seek political leverage across Europe.
Confidence: High
The article clearly describes Russian hybrid warfare tactics targeting NATO and EU members, involving hostile activities such as airspace incursions, election interference, and disinformation campaigns. These constitute aggressor actions with detailed examples and official analysis references, warranting high confidence. No defensive measures by alliances are described in this article.
Source URL
https://theconversation.com/russia-now-has-a-strategy-for-a-permanent-state-of-hybrid-war-266936
Published as a hybrid-warfare signal with a public source and reviewer-approved assessment bands. See the methodology for how records are assessed.
{
"id": "1ca5c38f-7b30-48a6-98b3-27dceb937de1",
"url": "https://theconversation.com/russia-now-has-a-strategy-for-a-permanent-state-of-hybrid-war-266936",
"source": "extension",
"status": "approved",
"category": "Military & Paramilitary Operations",
"subcategory": "Unconventional / Paramilitary",
"incident_type": "Use of 'little green men' (unmarked soldiers)",
"country": "Russian Federation",
"source_reliability": "C",
"info_credibility": "3",
"tags": [
"Russia",
"Hybrid Warfare",
"european union",
"Ukraine",
"NATO",
"Disinformation",
"Drone Incursions",
"Election Interference",
"Cyberattacks",
"Gerasimov Doctrine",
"Valdai Club Report"
],
"nodes": [
"Node 1: Borders",
"Node 2: 5th Column"
],
"countries": [],
"where_text": "Land",
"headline": "Russia now has a strategy for a permanent state of hybrid war",
"description": "Russia has developed a strategy for a prolonged hybrid war primarily targeting Europe, with tactics including drone incursions, NATO airspace violations, election interference, disinformation campaigns, and infrastructure sabotage. The Kremlin uses these methods to weaken European unity and leadership, particularly targeting Ukraine's allies, while seeking to maintain influence over post-Soviet regions and counter Western power. This strategy, linked to the so-called 'Gerasimov doctrine' and a permanent state of hybrid war, aims to preserve Russia's geopolitical sphere of influence and reshape the international order. Despite Russia's military setbacks, the hybrid war approach includes diverse tools ranging from propaganda, cyberattacks, to political manipulation in European states such as Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia.",
"summary_short": "Russia pursues a permanent hybrid war strategy against Europe, using tactics from drone incursions to disinformation to weaken Western influence and maintain regional control.",
"summary_extended": "The article discusses Russia's evolving strategy described as a permanent state of hybrid war encompassing military, cyber, political, and information tactics targeting Europe and Ukraine's allies. It highlights incidents such as drone incursions into Poland, fighter jets entering NATO airspace, election interference in Romania and Moldova, and disinformation campaigns in the UK. The Kremlin's broader goal is to weaken Western unity, particularly EU and NATO cohesion, to regain influence lost since the Cold War, especially in post-Soviet states and regions like the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia's military expenditure is far smaller than the EU's combined defense spending, limiting its conventional power but compensated for by extensive hybrid tools. The strategy involves creating chaos and instability to undermine European democratic institutions and sustaining a narrative of Russian security needs while exploiting local political divisions. The 2025 Valdai Club report described this approach as Russia pursuing permanent 'relations of chaos and disorder' to strengthen its geopolitical position. Analysts warn that while Western support for Ukraine remains strong, Russia's hybrid war will continue to seek political leverage across Europe.",
"actor_primary": "Kremlin",
"target_primary": null,
"location_text": "Europe (including Poland, Romania, Moldova, Estonia), Russia, Ukraine",
"location_region": null,
"location_coordinates_lat": 61.52401,
"location_coordinates_lon": 105.318756,
"location_precision": "Regional",
"is_aggressor_signal": true,
"signal_type": "HYBRID_SIGNAL",
"is_hybrid_war_signal": true,
"classification_complete": true,
"hybrid_signal_complete": true,
"classification_confidence": "High",
"classification_rationale": "The article clearly describes Russian hybrid warfare tactics targeting NATO and EU members, involving hostile activities such as airspace incursions, election interference, and disinformation campaigns. These constitute aggressor actions with detailed examples and official analysis references, warranting high confidence. No defensive measures by alliances are described in this article.",
"event_time_utc": "2025-10-16T15:57:03.000Z",
"end_time_utc": null,
"event_time_confidence": "unknown",
"created_at": "2026-02-01T00:14:26.027Z",
"updated_at": "2026-11-04T08:35:32.139Z",
"reliability_band": "strong",
"location_precision_band": "regional",
"time_precision_band": "unknown",
"severity_band": "significant",
"attribution_confidence_band": "high",
"attribution_basis": "single_source"
}Source reliability
C
Info credibility
3
Event time
Oct 16, 2025, 15:57 UTC
Event time confidence
unknown
Location
Europe (including Poland, Romania, Moldova, Estonia), Russia, Ukraine
Primary actor
Kremlin
Country
Russian Federation
Tags
Russia, Hybrid Warfare, european union, Ukraine, NATO, Disinformation, Drone Incursions, Election Interference, Cyberattacks, Gerasimov Doctrine, Valdai Club Report
Nodes
Node 1: Borders, Node 2: 5th Column
Signal
Submitted
Feb 1, 2026, 00:14 UTC
Russia pursues a permanent hybrid war strategy against Europe, using tactics from drone incursions to disinformation to weaken Western influence and maintain regional control.
The article discusses Russia's evolving strategy described as a permanent state of hybrid war encompassing military, cyber, political, and information tactics targeting Europe and Ukraine's allies. It highlights incidents such as drone incursions into Poland, fighter jets entering NATO airspace, election interference in Romania and Moldova, and disinformation campaigns in the UK. The Kremlin's broader goal is to weaken Western unity, particularly EU and NATO cohesion, to regain influence lost since the Cold War, especially in post-Soviet states and regions like the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia's military expenditure is far smaller than the EU's combined defense spending, limiting its conventional power but compensated for by extensive hybrid tools. The strategy involves creating chaos and instability to undermine European democratic institutions and sustaining a narrative of Russian security needs while exploiting local political divisions. The 2025 Valdai Club report described this approach as Russia pursuing permanent 'relations of chaos and disorder' to strengthen its geopolitical position. Analysts warn that while Western support for Ukraine remains strong, Russia's hybrid war will continue to seek political leverage across Europe.
Confidence: High
The article clearly describes Russian hybrid warfare tactics targeting NATO and EU members, involving hostile activities such as airspace incursions, election interference, and disinformation campaigns. These constitute aggressor actions with detailed examples and official analysis references, warranting high confidence. No defensive measures by alliances are described in this article.
Source URL
https://theconversation.com/russia-now-has-a-strategy-for-a-permanent-state-of-hybrid-war-266936
Published as a hybrid-warfare signal with a public source and reviewer-approved assessment bands. See the methodology for how records are assessed.
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"id": "1ca5c38f-7b30-48a6-98b3-27dceb937de1",
"url": "https://theconversation.com/russia-now-has-a-strategy-for-a-permanent-state-of-hybrid-war-266936",
"source": "extension",
"status": "approved",
"category": "Military & Paramilitary Operations",
"subcategory": "Unconventional / Paramilitary",
"incident_type": "Use of 'little green men' (unmarked soldiers)",
"country": "Russian Federation",
"source_reliability": "C",
"info_credibility": "3",
"tags": [
"Russia",
"Hybrid Warfare",
"european union",
"Ukraine",
"NATO",
"Disinformation",
"Drone Incursions",
"Election Interference",
"Cyberattacks",
"Gerasimov Doctrine",
"Valdai Club Report"
],
"nodes": [
"Node 1: Borders",
"Node 2: 5th Column"
],
"countries": [],
"where_text": "Land",
"headline": "Russia now has a strategy for a permanent state of hybrid war",
"description": "Russia has developed a strategy for a prolonged hybrid war primarily targeting Europe, with tactics including drone incursions, NATO airspace violations, election interference, disinformation campaigns, and infrastructure sabotage. The Kremlin uses these methods to weaken European unity and leadership, particularly targeting Ukraine's allies, while seeking to maintain influence over post-Soviet regions and counter Western power. This strategy, linked to the so-called 'Gerasimov doctrine' and a permanent state of hybrid war, aims to preserve Russia's geopolitical sphere of influence and reshape the international order. Despite Russia's military setbacks, the hybrid war approach includes diverse tools ranging from propaganda, cyberattacks, to political manipulation in European states such as Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia.",
"summary_short": "Russia pursues a permanent hybrid war strategy against Europe, using tactics from drone incursions to disinformation to weaken Western influence and maintain regional control.",
"summary_extended": "The article discusses Russia's evolving strategy described as a permanent state of hybrid war encompassing military, cyber, political, and information tactics targeting Europe and Ukraine's allies. It highlights incidents such as drone incursions into Poland, fighter jets entering NATO airspace, election interference in Romania and Moldova, and disinformation campaigns in the UK. The Kremlin's broader goal is to weaken Western unity, particularly EU and NATO cohesion, to regain influence lost since the Cold War, especially in post-Soviet states and regions like the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia's military expenditure is far smaller than the EU's combined defense spending, limiting its conventional power but compensated for by extensive hybrid tools. The strategy involves creating chaos and instability to undermine European democratic institutions and sustaining a narrative of Russian security needs while exploiting local political divisions. The 2025 Valdai Club report described this approach as Russia pursuing permanent 'relations of chaos and disorder' to strengthen its geopolitical position. Analysts warn that while Western support for Ukraine remains strong, Russia's hybrid war will continue to seek political leverage across Europe.",
"actor_primary": "Kremlin",
"target_primary": null,
"location_text": "Europe (including Poland, Romania, Moldova, Estonia), Russia, Ukraine",
"location_region": null,
"location_coordinates_lat": 61.52401,
"location_coordinates_lon": 105.318756,
"location_precision": "Regional",
"is_aggressor_signal": true,
"signal_type": "HYBRID_SIGNAL",
"is_hybrid_war_signal": true,
"classification_complete": true,
"hybrid_signal_complete": true,
"classification_confidence": "High",
"classification_rationale": "The article clearly describes Russian hybrid warfare tactics targeting NATO and EU members, involving hostile activities such as airspace incursions, election interference, and disinformation campaigns. These constitute aggressor actions with detailed examples and official analysis references, warranting high confidence. No defensive measures by alliances are described in this article.",
"event_time_utc": "2025-10-16T15:57:03.000Z",
"end_time_utc": null,
"event_time_confidence": "unknown",
"created_at": "2026-02-01T00:14:26.027Z",
"updated_at": "2026-11-04T08:35:32.139Z",
"reliability_band": "strong",
"location_precision_band": "regional",
"time_precision_band": "unknown",
"severity_band": "significant",
"attribution_confidence_band": "high",
"attribution_basis": "single_source"
}Source reliability
C
Info credibility
3
Event time
Oct 16, 2025, 15:57 UTC
Event time confidence
unknown
Location
Europe (including Poland, Romania, Moldova, Estonia), Russia, Ukraine
Primary actor
Kremlin
Country
Russian Federation
Tags
Russia, Hybrid Warfare, european union, Ukraine, NATO, Disinformation, Drone Incursions, Election Interference, Cyberattacks, Gerasimov Doctrine, Valdai Club Report
Nodes
Node 1: Borders, Node 2: 5th Column