IISS alleges Russian shadow fleet vessels served as drone launch platforms for an 18-month European surveillance campaign, linking 144 incidents. However, independent investigations and European authorities found no direct evidence to confirm hostile drone activity or vessel involvement, leading to widespread doubts about the report’s conclusions.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) published a report alleging a coordinated 18-month Russian drone surveillance campaign across Europe, using vessels from a so-called Russian shadow fleet as launch platforms. The report links 144 drone-related incidents in 13 countries to Russian intelligence but lacks direct physical or forensic evidence. Multiple investigations, including by European authorities and independent journalists, have failed to verify many of the drone sightings, often attributing them to misidentified conventional aircraft, natural phenomena, or technical false positives. Key incidents in the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Ireland, France, and Italy were scrutinized, revealing no confirmed hostile drone activity or links to shadow fleet vessels. The report’s central assumption—that Russian ships enabled drone launches—is challenged by lack of corroborative evidence, and technical questions about the feasibility and rationale of such operations remain unanswered. The report is viewed as a strategic assessment based on pattern analysis rather than verified forensic data, and claims of operational Russian drone espionage remain unproven. Several European countries have scaled back earlier claims due to lack of evidence. The timing of the report coincides with growing skepticism of Europe’s 'mystery drone wave.'