Latvia faces growing security threats from Russia's potential hybrid warfare targeting Baltic states and Poland. Hybrid attacks aiming to avoid NATO Article 5 triggers are likely, while Latvia’s military readiness and political will for strong responses lag behind.

This is an interview with military analyst Mārtiņš Vērdiņš conducted by Agnese Margēviča, discussing the deteriorating security situation affecting Latvia and the Eastern NATO bloc. The interview focuses on the credible threat of a Russian hybrid warfare operation targeting Baltic states and Poland as part of Moscow's strategy to intimidate NATO and force Europe to halt support for Ukraine. The analyst explains that full-scale conventional invasion is unlikely due to NATO's Article 5 deterrence, but hybrid attacks with ambiguous attribution, such as sabotage, terrorist acts, and drone attacks by proxy groups, are consistent with Kremlin tactics and likely to be utilized. The article highlights that Latvia and neighboring states must avoid mistakes made by Ukraine in 2014 by proactively addressing emerging threats. Political will and military capacity for response, especially for simulating symmetrical retaliations using long-range drones, remain limited. The piece underscores risks of escalating tensions without triggering full NATO response, the challenges of identifying aggressors in hybrid scenarios, and the political complexities that slow decisive action during pre-election periods in democracies.