{
  "id": "2d7d6591-243f-4135-a052-66feb5640224",
  "url": "https://archive.ph/QO8ft",
  "source": "hwt_web_submit",
  "status": "approved",
  "category": "Cyber & Information Warfare",
  "subcategory": "Information Operations",
  "incident_type": "Fake NGOs / shell media outlets",
  "country": "Ukraine",
  "source_reliability": "C",
  "info_credibility": "3",
  "tags": [
    "ISW",
    "Polymarket",
    "War Gambling",
    "russia–ukraine war",
    "Information manipulation",
    "Hybrid warfare",
    "Myrnohrad",
    "Conflict maps",
    "Russia Ukraine war",
    "Betting market"
  ],
  "nodes": [],
  "countries": [
    "Ukraine"
  ],
  "where_text": "Land",
  "headline": null,
  "description": "On November 15, 2025, the live conflict map maintained by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), used by the Polymarket betting platform to resolve wagers on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, was illicitly edited to display a false Russian territorial gain in Myrnohrad. This fake advance appeared on the ISW map shortly before 10:48 UTC, leading to the resolution of a high-volume bet on Polymarket concerning Russian capture of the intersection between Vatutina Vulytsya and Puhachova Vulytsya in Myrnohrad. After payout, the unauthorized map change was reversed, removing the red shading representing Russian control. ISW publicly acknowledged the unauthorized edit, apologizing and stating it was removed promptly and did not affect subsequent assessments. The incident highlights risks of data manipulation in conflict reporting leveraged for financial gain through war gambling markets. ISW criticized Polymarket's use of its conflict data to adjudicate bets. This event represents manipulation of information channels in the hybrid warfare context, potentially incentivizing falsification of battle outcomes for profit.",
  "summary_short": "On Nov 15, 2025, an unauthorized edit of ISW's Ukraine conflict map falsely showed Russian capture of Myrnohrad, enabling payout of a Polymarket bet resolved on the fake advance before the edit was reversed.",
  "summary_extended": "The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a respected DC-based think tank providing live maps of the Ukraine conflict, experienced an unauthorized edit to its interactive map on November 15-16, 2025. The edit falsely depicted Russian forces capturing a key intersection in Myrnohrad, Ukraine. This change occurred shortly before 10:48 UTC, coinciding with resolution of a betting market on Polymarket worth over $1 million in trading volume, which used the ISW map for adjudicating bet outcomes. Following payout of winnings on Russia capturing the intersection, ISW reversed the color-coded territorial change and publicly apologized, stating the edit was unapproved and did not influence official daily assessments. ISW expressed disapproval of Polymarket’s use of their maps as a gambling adjudication tool, emphasizing their commitment to objective conflict analysis for the benefit of decision-makers and journalists. This incident illustrates how financial incentives in war betting markets can motivate manipulation of conflict data sources, representing a contemporary example of information operations within hybrid warfare targeting the Ukraine conflict. ISW’s acknowledgment adds credibility to the claim of tampering, though no perpetrator is identified. The case underscores ethical and security risks posed by gambling on real warfare events and the vulnerability of open-source conflict data to hostile exploitation.",
  "actor_primary": "Institute for the Study of War (ISW)",
  "target_primary": null,
  "location_text": "Myrnohrad",
  "location_region": null,
  "location_coordinates_lat": 48.303,
  "location_coordinates_lon": 37.796,
  "location_precision": "Approximate",
  "is_aggressor_signal": true,
  "signal_type": "HYBRID_SIGNAL",
  "is_hybrid_war_signal": true,
  "classification_complete": true,
  "hybrid_signal_complete": true,
  "classification_confidence": "High",
  "classification_rationale": "The event documents hostile manipulation of a reputable war map to misrepresent territorial control in Ukraine, facilitating fraudulent betting outcomes. This information operation constitutes aggressor hybrid warfare activity targeting data integrity of conflict reporting.",
  "event_time_utc": "2025-11-15T10:48:00.000Z",
  "end_time_utc": null,
  "event_time_confidence": "exact",
  "created_at": "2026-02-14T12:22:49.307Z",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-04T08:35:32.139Z",
  "reliability_band": "strong",
  "location_precision_band": "approximate",
  "time_precision_band": "exact",
  "severity_band": "moderate",
  "attribution_confidence_band": "medium",
  "attribution_basis": "single_source"
}

{
  "id": "2d7d6591-243f-4135-a052-66feb5640224",
  "url": "https://archive.ph/QO8ft",
  "source": "hwt_web_submit",
  "status": "approved",
  "category": "Cyber & Information Warfare",
  "subcategory": "Information Operations",
  "incident_type": "Fake NGOs / shell media outlets",
  "country": "Ukraine",
  "source_reliability": "C",
  "info_credibility": "3",
  "tags": [
    "ISW",
    "Polymarket",
    "War Gambling",
    "russia–ukraine war",
    "Information manipulation",
    "Hybrid warfare",
    "Myrnohrad",
    "Conflict maps",
    "Russia Ukraine war",
    "Betting market"
  ],
  "nodes": [],
  "countries": [
    "Ukraine"
  ],
  "where_text": "Land",
  "headline": null,
  "description": "On November 15, 2025, the live conflict map maintained by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), used by the Polymarket betting platform to resolve wagers on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, was illicitly edited to display a false Russian territorial gain in Myrnohrad. This fake advance appeared on the ISW map shortly before 10:48 UTC, leading to the resolution of a high-volume bet on Polymarket concerning Russian capture of the intersection between Vatutina Vulytsya and Puhachova Vulytsya in Myrnohrad. After payout, the unauthorized map change was reversed, removing the red shading representing Russian control. ISW publicly acknowledged the unauthorized edit, apologizing and stating it was removed promptly and did not affect subsequent assessments. The incident highlights risks of data manipulation in conflict reporting leveraged for financial gain through war gambling markets. ISW criticized Polymarket's use of its conflict data to adjudicate bets. This event represents manipulation of information channels in the hybrid warfare context, potentially incentivizing falsification of battle outcomes for profit.",
  "summary_short": "On Nov 15, 2025, an unauthorized edit of ISW's Ukraine conflict map falsely showed Russian capture of Myrnohrad, enabling payout of a Polymarket bet resolved on the fake advance before the edit was reversed.",
  "summary_extended": "The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a respected DC-based think tank providing live maps of the Ukraine conflict, experienced an unauthorized edit to its interactive map on November 15-16, 2025. The edit falsely depicted Russian forces capturing a key intersection in Myrnohrad, Ukraine. This change occurred shortly before 10:48 UTC, coinciding with resolution of a betting market on Polymarket worth over $1 million in trading volume, which used the ISW map for adjudicating bet outcomes. Following payout of winnings on Russia capturing the intersection, ISW reversed the color-coded territorial change and publicly apologized, stating the edit was unapproved and did not influence official daily assessments. ISW expressed disapproval of Polymarket’s use of their maps as a gambling adjudication tool, emphasizing their commitment to objective conflict analysis for the benefit of decision-makers and journalists. This incident illustrates how financial incentives in war betting markets can motivate manipulation of conflict data sources, representing a contemporary example of information operations within hybrid warfare targeting the Ukraine conflict. ISW’s acknowledgment adds credibility to the claim of tampering, though no perpetrator is identified. The case underscores ethical and security risks posed by gambling on real warfare events and the vulnerability of open-source conflict data to hostile exploitation.",
  "actor_primary": "Institute for the Study of War (ISW)",
  "target_primary": null,
  "location_text": "Myrnohrad",
  "location_region": null,
  "location_coordinates_lat": 48.303,
  "location_coordinates_lon": 37.796,
  "location_precision": "Approximate",
  "is_aggressor_signal": true,
  "signal_type": "HYBRID_SIGNAL",
  "is_hybrid_war_signal": true,
  "classification_complete": true,
  "hybrid_signal_complete": true,
  "classification_confidence": "High",
  "classification_rationale": "The event documents hostile manipulation of a reputable war map to misrepresent territorial control in Ukraine, facilitating fraudulent betting outcomes. This information operation constitutes aggressor hybrid warfare activity targeting data integrity of conflict reporting.",
  "event_time_utc": "2025-11-15T10:48:00.000Z",
  "end_time_utc": null,
  "event_time_confidence": "exact",
  "created_at": "2026-02-14T12:22:49.307Z",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-04T08:35:32.139Z",
  "reliability_band": "strong",
  "location_precision_band": "approximate",
  "time_precision_band": "exact",
  "severity_band": "moderate",
  "attribution_confidence_band": "medium",
  "attribution_basis": "single_source"
}