On Nov 15, 2025, an unauthorized edit of ISW's Ukraine conflict map falsely showed Russian capture of Myrnohrad, enabling payout of a Polymarket bet resolved on the fake advance before the edit was reversed.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a respected DC-based think tank providing live maps of the Ukraine conflict, experienced an unauthorized edit to its interactive map on November 15-16, 2025. The edit falsely depicted Russian forces capturing a key intersection in Myrnohrad, Ukraine. This change occurred shortly before 10:48 UTC, coinciding with resolution of a betting market on Polymarket worth over $1 million in trading volume, which used the ISW map for adjudicating bet outcomes. Following payout of winnings on Russia capturing the intersection, ISW reversed the color-coded territorial change and publicly apologized, stating the edit was unapproved and did not influence official daily assessments. ISW expressed disapproval of Polymarket’s use of their maps as a gambling adjudication tool, emphasizing their commitment to objective conflict analysis for the benefit of decision-makers and journalists. This incident illustrates how financial incentives in war betting markets can motivate manipulation of conflict data sources, representing a contemporary example of information operations within hybrid warfare targeting the Ukraine conflict. ISW’s acknowledgment adds credibility to the claim of tampering, though no perpetrator is identified. The case underscores ethical and security risks posed by gambling on real warfare events and the vulnerability of open-source conflict data to hostile exploitation.