Dutch intelligence warns Russia could launch a regional conflict against NATO within a year after the Ukraine war ends, aiming to politically split the Alliance rather than defeat it militarily.

The Netherlands' Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) released its 2025 annual report on 21 April 2026, assessing that Russia may be capable of beginning a regional war against NATO within a year of hostilities ending in Ukraine. Despite sustaining heavy losses estimated at 1.2 million personnel, including over 500,000 killed, Russia has rebuilt its military capacity with a focus on personnel recruitment, heavy weapons, long-range missiles, and unmanned systems. The objective of any conflict with NATO is assessed to be limited territorial gains designed to fragment NATO politically, possibly under nuclear threat. Russian hybrid warfare efforts continue below open war thresholds, including sabotage, layered espionage networks, and growing cyberattack capabilities, some enhanced by artificial intelligence. Russia has tested new destabilizing nuclear systems like the Burevestnik missile and Poseidon torpedo, with short-warning intermediate-range missiles stationed in Belarus. The report notes the absence of Cold War-era arms control and stabilizing factors, increasing risks of uncontrollable escalation. This assessment is supported by broader European intelligence consensus from Germany, Denmark, and Estonia forecasting similar Russian preparations for conflicts with NATO within the decade.