The report details a critical escalation in the hybrid warfare tactics employed by Russia against Ukraine as of 2026. With the frontlines largely frozen, Russia has shifted its operations towards sustained attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure and civilian targets to induce social and humanitarian crises in major cities such as Kyiv and Kharkiv. This strategy involves mass destruction of energy, heating, water infrastructure, and supply chains, aiming to force population displacement toward western borders and induce chaos and loss of government control. Russia is reportedly deploying new rocket-powered drones designed to destroy power lines and using upgraded ballistic missiles like Iskander-1000 to strike targets at longer ranges, including western Ukraine. Border crossings with Moldova, Romania, and Poland have been attacked, with casualties and temporary shutdowns of these critical transit points. Railway infrastructure and rolling stock, including locomotives and transport hubs in several Ukrainian regions, have been targeted in missile and drone strikes, aiming to disrupt civilian and military logistics. This intensified campaign is linked to Moscow's intent to coerce Ukraine into peace talks favorable to Russia by December 2026, relying on terror against civilians and degradation of Ukraine's logistical and energy capabilities. Sabotage or strikes on cross-border energy transmission infrastructure in neighboring states are considered possible. The report highlights the expected worsening humanitarian and social conditions due to these escalations and anticipates increased migration pressures and tensions in neighboring countries.

The report details a critical escalation in the hybrid warfare tactics employed by Russia against Ukraine as of 2026. With the frontlines largely frozen, Russia has shifted its operations towards sustained attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure and civilian targets to induce social and humanitarian crises in major cities such as Kyiv and Kharkiv. This strategy involves mass destruction of energy, heating, water infrastructure, and supply chains, aiming to force population displacement toward western borders and induce chaos and loss of government control. Russia is reportedly deploying new rocket-powered drones designed to destroy power lines and using upgraded ballistic missiles like Iskander-1000 to strike targets at longer ranges, including western Ukraine. Border crossings with Moldova, Romania, and Poland have been attacked, with casualties and temporary shutdowns of these critical transit points. Railway infrastructure and rolling stock, including locomotives and transport hubs in several Ukrainian regions, have been targeted in missile and drone strikes, aiming to disrupt civilian and military logistics. This intensified campaign is linked to Moscow's intent to coerce Ukraine into peace talks favorable to Russia by December 2026, relying on terror against civilians and degradation of Ukraine's logistical and energy capabilities. Sabotage or strikes on cross-border energy transmission infrastructure in neighboring states are considered possible. The report highlights the expected worsening humanitarian and social conditions due to these escalations and anticipates increased migration pressures and tensions in neighboring countries.