James Appathurai, NATO's deputy assistant secretary general for innovation, hybrid and cyber, warned on December 28, 2024, that Russia could launch unconventional attacks such as sabotage, arson, or attacks on critical infrastructure that could cause substantial casualties. NATO is witnessing a rising volume of hybrid attacks, including at least dozens and possibly up to 100 acts, some foiled, involving attempts like cutting undersea cables and planting incendiary devices on aircraft cargo. The increase follows Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and is partly a Kremlin response to Western support for Ukraine. Appathurai highlighted the dangers of ambiguous hybrid warfare thresholds that might trigger NATO's Article 5 collective defense clause, referencing the 2018 Novichok poisoning of Sergei Skripal as an example of a hybrid attack with potentially mass casualties. NATO is updating its hybrid warfare strategy, last revised in 2015, to set clearer red lines and defences ahead of a 2025 summit, aiming to deter escalation and manage hybrid threats more effectively. The official described the current situation as a "boiling frog," where unacceptable levels of hybrid hostilities have become normalized and warned of the risk of a major hybrid attack causing extensive damage or casualties.

James Appathurai, NATO's deputy assistant secretary general for innovation, hybrid and cyber, warned on December 28, 2024, that Russia could launch unconventional attacks such as sabotage, arson, or attacks on critical infrastructure that could cause substantial casualties. NATO is witnessing a rising volume of hybrid attacks, including at least dozens and possibly up to 100 acts, some foiled, involving attempts like cutting undersea cables and planting incendiary devices on aircraft cargo. The increase follows Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and is partly a Kremlin response to Western support for Ukraine. Appathurai highlighted the dangers of ambiguous hybrid warfare thresholds that might trigger NATO's Article 5 collective defense clause, referencing the 2018 Novichok poisoning of Sergei Skripal as an example of a hybrid attack with potentially mass casualties. NATO is updating its hybrid warfare strategy, last revised in 2015, to set clearer red lines and defences ahead of a 2025 summit, aiming to deter escalation and manage hybrid threats more effectively. The official described the current situation as a "boiling frog," where unacceptable levels of hybrid hostilities have become normalized and warned of the risk of a major hybrid attack causing extensive damage or casualties.