Between 2023 and 2024, Russia nearly tripled its covert sabotage and subversion attacks against targets in Europe and the United States, focusing on transportation, government facilities, critical infrastructure, and industry, many linked to Western support for Ukraine. The Russian military intelligence agency, GRU, orchestrates these attacks directly or through recruited local assets, using tactics including explosives, blunt instruments like anchors to damage undersea cables, electronic warfare, and weaponizing illegal immigration. These operations are part of a broader shadow war complementing Russia’s conventional war in Ukraine, consistent with longstanding Soviet and Russian doctrines of active measures and irregular warfare. Key Russian units involved include GRU Units 29155 and 54654, which conduct sabotage, recruitment, and cyber operations, with SVR and GUGI also playing roles in cyberattacks and undersea sabotage, respectively. Western countries have emphasized defense and resilience but lack a coordinated offense strategy to deter these activities. Prominent intelligence officials from the U.K., Germany, Poland, Norway, Estonia, and NATO publicly acknowledge and condemn Russia's ongoing hybrid warfare campaign, highlighting its increasing recklessness and threat to Euro-Atlantic security. The analysis calls for NATO to implement offensive cyber operations, escalate sanctions, and target Russia’s shadow fleet to raise the costs of Moscow’s actions.

Between 2023 and 2024, Russia nearly tripled its covert sabotage and subversion attacks against targets in Europe and the United States, focusing on transportation, government facilities, critical infrastructure, and industry, many linked to Western support for Ukraine. The Russian military intelligence agency, GRU, orchestrates these attacks directly or through recruited local assets, using tactics including explosives, blunt instruments like anchors to damage undersea cables, electronic warfare, and weaponizing illegal immigration. These operations are part of a broader shadow war complementing Russia’s conventional war in Ukraine, consistent with longstanding Soviet and Russian doctrines of active measures and irregular warfare. Key Russian units involved include GRU Units 29155 and 54654, which conduct sabotage, recruitment, and cyber operations, with SVR and GUGI also playing roles in cyberattacks and undersea sabotage, respectively. Western countries have emphasized defense and resilience but lack a coordinated offense strategy to deter these activities. Prominent intelligence officials from the U.K., Germany, Poland, Norway, Estonia, and NATO publicly acknowledge and condemn Russia's ongoing hybrid warfare campaign, highlighting its increasing recklessness and threat to Euro-Atlantic security. The analysis calls for NATO to implement offensive cyber operations, escalate sanctions, and target Russia’s shadow fleet to raise the costs of Moscow’s actions.