Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), warned in a September 21, 2026 interview with The Guardian that Russia could test NATO's cohesion within months. He indicated the Kremlin might consider a limited incursion or small-scale invasion of a NATO member state bordering Russia, alongside increased drone activity. The possible Russian action could include a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, or a large-scale campaign to influence public opinion. Koudelka stated Russia's current strategy aims to escalate tensions to undermine support for Ukraine's war effort, though he emphasized ongoing efforts to prevent such scenarios.

Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), warned in a September 21, 2026 interview with The Guardian that Russia could test NATO's cohesion within months. He indicated the Kremlin might consider a limited incursion or small-scale invasion of a NATO member state bordering Russia, alongside increased drone activity. The possible Russian action could include a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, or a large-scale campaign to influence public opinion. Koudelka stated Russia's current strategy aims to escalate tensions to undermine support for Ukraine's war effort, though he emphasized ongoing efforts to prevent such scenarios.