In August 2026, growing fears about a potential Russian attack or provocations against the Baltic states and Poland have been publicly expressed by officials in Lithuania and Poland. Lithuanian Defence Minister Robert Kaunas warned that Russia might carry out false-flag operations using Ukrainian drones against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region to blame Kyiv, while Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski issued similar warnings. Experts from Estonia and Latvia provide context that these threats are part of Russia’s broader strategy to reduce Western support for Ukraine by sowing division within NATO and the EU. Estonia's National Security and Defence Coordination director Erkki Tori and ICDS head Marek Kohv emphasize a continued focus on hybrid warfare tactics including cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation campaigns rather than conventional military attacks, which are currently seen as unlikely due to Russian focus on Ukraine. Russian military provocations such as airspace violations, military exercises near borders, use of unmarked 'little green men', and cyberattacks have been ongoing for years. Analysts warn that a Russian false-flag operation could attempt to test NATO's unity and resolve, aiming to weaken Western support for Ukraine. However, some experts believe that an attack on the Baltics or Poland would instead unify Europe more strongly against Russia. The article includes references to recent Russian-Belarusian drone military drills and notes intensified information operations expected around upcoming elections in Latvia and Estonia. The coverage includes visual elements such as photos of Russian troops meeting Vladimir Putin, Russian attacks in Ukraine, and drones in military drills. The source LRT.lt is part of the Journalism Trust Initiative Programme, supporting its reliability.

In August 2026, growing fears about a potential Russian attack or provocations against the Baltic states and Poland have been publicly expressed by officials in Lithuania and Poland. Lithuanian Defence Minister Robert Kaunas warned that Russia might carry out false-flag operations using Ukrainian drones against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region to blame Kyiv, while Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski issued similar warnings. Experts from Estonia and Latvia provide context that these threats are part of Russia’s broader strategy to reduce Western support for Ukraine by sowing division within NATO and the EU. Estonia's National Security and Defence Coordination director Erkki Tori and ICDS head Marek Kohv emphasize a continued focus on hybrid warfare tactics including cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation campaigns rather than conventional military attacks, which are currently seen as unlikely due to Russian focus on Ukraine. Russian military provocations such as airspace violations, military exercises near borders, use of unmarked 'little green men', and cyberattacks have been ongoing for years. Analysts warn that a Russian false-flag operation could attempt to test NATO's unity and resolve, aiming to weaken Western support for Ukraine. However, some experts believe that an attack on the Baltics or Poland would instead unify Europe more strongly against Russia. The article includes references to recent Russian-Belarusian drone military drills and notes intensified information operations expected around upcoming elections in Latvia and Estonia. The coverage includes visual elements such as photos of Russian troops meeting Vladimir Putin, Russian attacks in Ukraine, and drones in military drills. The source LRT.lt is part of the Journalism Trust Initiative Programme, supporting its reliability.