Lithuanian military intelligence has data indicating that Russia is considering attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region using drones manufactured in Ukraine. This was confirmed by Lithuania's Minister of Defence, Robertas Kaunas. While there is consideration of such unconventional kinetic attacks by Russia employing Ukrainian drones, no concrete decision or timeline for the operation exists yet. The use of Ukrainian-made drones could serve as a false flag operation, aiming to mislead about the origin of the attack and deny direct involvement in NATO's territory, thus maintaining a 'gray zone' operation to avoid direct accountability. Lithuania and Poland have previously warned about potential Russian attacks in the region. The heightened tensions have been noted since May, with Russia accusing the Baltic states of allowing their airspace to be used for attacks on Russian territory, accusations which the Baltic states categorically deny. Lithuania has experienced drone incidents in recent years, but none explicitly linked to deliberate Russian actions except two accidental Russian drones that entered from Belarus in 2025. Lithuania has enhanced security measures at five critical infrastructure sites this summer, including the LNG terminal in Klaipeda, the LitPol Link electric grid interconnection in Alytus, and the Kruonis hydroelectric power station. The report also highlights ongoing Russian sabotage and diversionary acts in Lithuania by GRU special units targeting Ukraine supporters and Putin critics. Geopolitical analyst Linas Kojala noted that Russia is likely to risk provocations to deter Western support for Ukraine, especially given Kremlin's difficulties at the front and internal political pressures.

Lithuanian military intelligence has data indicating that Russia is considering attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region using drones manufactured in Ukraine. This was confirmed by Lithuania's Minister of Defence, Robertas Kaunas. While there is consideration of such unconventional kinetic attacks by Russia employing Ukrainian drones, no concrete decision or timeline for the operation exists yet. The use of Ukrainian-made drones could serve as a false flag operation, aiming to mislead about the origin of the attack and deny direct involvement in NATO's territory, thus maintaining a 'gray zone' operation to avoid direct accountability. Lithuania and Poland have previously warned about potential Russian attacks in the region. The heightened tensions have been noted since May, with Russia accusing the Baltic states of allowing their airspace to be used for attacks on Russian territory, accusations which the Baltic states categorically deny. Lithuania has experienced drone incidents in recent years, but none explicitly linked to deliberate Russian actions except two accidental Russian drones that entered from Belarus in 2025. Lithuania has enhanced security measures at five critical infrastructure sites this summer, including the LNG terminal in Klaipeda, the LitPol Link electric grid interconnection in Alytus, and the Kruonis hydroelectric power station. The report also highlights ongoing Russian sabotage and diversionary acts in Lithuania by GRU special units targeting Ukraine supporters and Putin critics. Geopolitical analyst Linas Kojala noted that Russia is likely to risk provocations to deter Western support for Ukraine, especially given Kremlin's difficulties at the front and internal political pressures.