Published on November 19, 2025, the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) report 'War Without End: Russia’s Shadow Warfare,' authored by Sam Greene, Andrei Soldatov, and Irina Borogan, provides an in-depth analytical overview of Russia’s hybrid warfare approach. It describes Russia’s shadow warfare as a self-reinforcing system rooted in a neo-Stalinist worldview that merges internal regime survival with external subversion countermeasures, conducted primarily by Russia’s intelligence agencies including the FSB, GRU, and SVR. This warfare includes sabotage (severed cables, arson), cyberattacks, assassinations (e.g., Alexei Navalny's poisoning), political influence, and sanctions evasion, all intended to create disruption below thresholds provoking outright war. The report stresses this war is continuous and ubiquitous, fusing domestic and foreign targets under a paranoia-driven regime survival logic. The absence of codified success criteria results in escalation by design, where failures or exposures are spun as victories to justify increased aggression and resource allocation. The report warns that Western responses emphasizing exposure and resilience may inadvertently validate Russian actions, and calls for deterrence that strategically imposes costs and discipline on the Kremlin’s shadow warfare apparatus. While extensively analytical, the report does not document a specific incident or event; rather, it provides a systemic and doctrinal framework for understanding Russia’s ongoing hybrid threat. It is based on expert research by CEPA, with high credibility due to institutional reputation and named authors, but does not present primary event data or new incidents.

Published on November 19, 2025, the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) report 'War Without End: Russia’s Shadow Warfare,' authored by Sam Greene, Andrei Soldatov, and Irina Borogan, provides an in-depth analytical overview of Russia’s hybrid warfare approach. It describes Russia’s shadow warfare as a self-reinforcing system rooted in a neo-Stalinist worldview that merges internal regime survival with external subversion countermeasures, conducted primarily by Russia’s intelligence agencies including the FSB, GRU, and SVR. This warfare includes sabotage (severed cables, arson), cyberattacks, assassinations (e.g., Alexei Navalny's poisoning), political influence, and sanctions evasion, all intended to create disruption below thresholds provoking outright war. The report stresses this war is continuous and ubiquitous, fusing domestic and foreign targets under a paranoia-driven regime survival logic. The absence of codified success criteria results in escalation by design, where failures or exposures are spun as victories to justify increased aggression and resource allocation. The report warns that Western responses emphasizing exposure and resilience may inadvertently validate Russian actions, and calls for deterrence that strategically imposes costs and discipline on the Kremlin’s shadow warfare apparatus. While extensively analytical, the report does not document a specific incident or event; rather, it provides a systemic and doctrinal framework for understanding Russia’s ongoing hybrid threat. It is based on expert research by CEPA, with high credibility due to institutional reputation and named authors, but does not present primary event data or new incidents.