In December 2027, Russia launches a large-scale hybrid warfare operation against Lithuania, named Operation Winter Storm, involving a coordinated standoff missile and drone attack that destroys the Lithuanian government, air defenses, critical infrastructure, and energy systems. The scenario involves no Russian ground invasion but employs hypersonic Kinzhal and Iskander-M ballistic missiles, electronic warfare (GPS jamming), and a massive deployment of over 170,000 Shahed-136/Geran-2 drones over 90 days. The attack eradicates government leadership, causes a constitutional crisis, annihilates air defense, and systematically destroys energy, water, transport, telecom, food, medical facilities, cultural, military infrastructure, and residential areas. The attack unfolds in distinct phases: a 30-minute decapitation strike, a 17-day relentless drone blitz, a 40-day continuous bombardment, culminating in a Russian ultimatum demanding Baltic capitulation or threat to flatten Riga and Tallinn. The operation projects vulnerabilities in Lithuanian defense dependency, NATO alliance failures, and uses covert drone stockpiling and information warfare (political influence including French nuclear withdrawal under Marine Le Pen) to neutralize deterrents prior to attack. This scenario illustrates hybrid warfare via non-kinetic (cyber, information) and kinetic means without troop crossing borders, emphasizing coercion through bombardment and systemic destruction while exploiting political and military weaknesses in Baltic-NATO defense.

In December 2027, Russia launches a large-scale hybrid warfare operation against Lithuania, named Operation Winter Storm, involving a coordinated standoff missile and drone attack that destroys the Lithuanian government, air defenses, critical infrastructure, and energy systems. The scenario involves no Russian ground invasion but employs hypersonic Kinzhal and Iskander-M ballistic missiles, electronic warfare (GPS jamming), and a massive deployment of over 170,000 Shahed-136/Geran-2 drones over 90 days. The attack eradicates government leadership, causes a constitutional crisis, annihilates air defense, and systematically destroys energy, water, transport, telecom, food, medical facilities, cultural, military infrastructure, and residential areas. The attack unfolds in distinct phases: a 30-minute decapitation strike, a 17-day relentless drone blitz, a 40-day continuous bombardment, culminating in a Russian ultimatum demanding Baltic capitulation or threat to flatten Riga and Tallinn. The operation projects vulnerabilities in Lithuanian defense dependency, NATO alliance failures, and uses covert drone stockpiling and information warfare (political influence including French nuclear withdrawal under Marine Le Pen) to neutralize deterrents prior to attack. This scenario illustrates hybrid warfare via non-kinetic (cyber, information) and kinetic means without troop crossing borders, emphasizing coercion through bombardment and systemic destruction while exploiting political and military weaknesses in Baltic-NATO defense.