The article 'The Russian Military Campaign Against Europe: Defining the Threat' from ISW dated September 16, 2026, analyzes the Kremlin’s coordinated kinetic campaigns targeting Europe and the near-term conventional military threat Russia poses to NATO states. It details numerous Russian actions from drone attacks, sabotage of critical infrastructure, assassination attempts, cyberattacks, and naval threats against European targets. It highlights the German government's public attribution of the August 5, 2026, drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport to Russia as a turning point in European official willingness to recognize and publicly discuss Russian kinetic actions. The Kremlin is conducting these campaigns to disrupt NATO support to Ukraine, intimidate European states, gather intelligence, normalize Russian attacks, and prepare for potential future conventional operations. European officials often understate these actions by labeling them 'provocations' or 'hybrid attacks,' which impedes effective collective responses. Baltic states have started calling these acts 'state-sponsored terrorism.' NATO faces the risk of a limited near-term conventional Russian attack (potentially before 2028-2030) aimed at testing and dividing NATO’s collective defense resolve. European militaries need rapid rearmament and doctrinal adaptation to incorporate lessons from the Ukraine war, especially drone-centric tactics, while maintaining and modernizing traditional force capabilities. The article calls for a shared European and NATO understanding of these threats to enable coordinated and urgent policy and military responses to defeat ongoing Russian kinetic campaigns and deter future conventional threats.

The article 'The Russian Military Campaign Against Europe: Defining the Threat' from ISW dated September 16, 2026, analyzes the Kremlin’s coordinated kinetic campaigns targeting Europe and the near-term conventional military threat Russia poses to NATO states. It details numerous Russian actions from drone attacks, sabotage of critical infrastructure, assassination attempts, cyberattacks, and naval threats against European targets. It highlights the German government's public attribution of the August 5, 2026, drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport to Russia as a turning point in European official willingness to recognize and publicly discuss Russian kinetic actions. The Kremlin is conducting these campaigns to disrupt NATO support to Ukraine, intimidate European states, gather intelligence, normalize Russian attacks, and prepare for potential future conventional operations. European officials often understate these actions by labeling them 'provocations' or 'hybrid attacks,' which impedes effective collective responses. Baltic states have started calling these acts 'state-sponsored terrorism.' NATO faces the risk of a limited near-term conventional Russian attack (potentially before 2028-2030) aimed at testing and dividing NATO’s collective defense resolve. European militaries need rapid rearmament and doctrinal adaptation to incorporate lessons from the Ukraine war, especially drone-centric tactics, while maintaining and modernizing traditional force capabilities. The article calls for a shared European and NATO understanding of these threats to enable coordinated and urgent policy and military responses to defeat ongoing Russian kinetic campaigns and deter future conventional threats.