Switzerland's intelligence names Russia biggest European threat amid escalating hybrid war; European agencies warn of preparation for possible NATO conflict

The 2026 Swiss Federal Intelligence Service (NDB) annual report designates Russia as the foremost security threat to Europe, highlighting a broad and long-term hybrid warfare campaign involving cyberattacks, sabotage, propaganda, and disinformation. Switzerland faces direct impacts including cyberattacks and intelligence threats. The report reflects a deteriorated European security environment and increasing uncertainty over U.S. defense commitment post-2017, prompting European states to strengthen defense capabilities. Dutch, German, Danish, and Estonian intelligence agencies similarly assess that Russia is preparing for possible regional conflicts with NATO within the next several years (2027-2029), focusing on limited territorial gains for political destabilization under potential nuclear threats. Russia views the war as existential, linking it to protection of its traditional values and power. On the hybrid war front, Russian electronic warfare, especially GPS jamming, disrupts navigation in Ukraine and Baltic NATO states, forcing pilots to train without GPS reliance. The UK has graduated 50+ Ukrainian pilots trained to operate under such jamming conditions, flying F-16 jets for air defense and precision strikes. Allied countermeasures include reintroducing older radio navigation aids to counteract Russian interference.