Estlink 2 subsea power transmission link between Finland and Estonia suffered an outage on Christmas Day, potentially due to sabotage.

Energy & Infrastructure AttacksCritical Infrastructure SabotagePower grids, pipelines

AggressorDefense

Summary

On December 25, 2024, at 12:26pm local time (10:26 UTC), the Estlink 2 subsea electrical transmission line connecting Finland and Estonia experienced an outage while transferring 658 megawatts. Finnish grid operator Fingrid announced that the cause of the fault is under investigation and has not ruled out the possibility of sabotage. Both Finnish and Estonian authorities are inspecting the subsea cable and stations on both ends. Estlink 1 remains operational. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo stated the outage does not affect Finland's electricity supply; industry representatives indicated the impact on electricity prices will be minimal. Estlink 2 is a critical cross-border electricity link with a 650 MW capacity. The incident follows months of prior maintenance on the cable earlier in 2024.

Classification

Confidence: High

Classified as aggressor because the outage may be caused by sabotage on a critical subsea power cable linking Finland and Estonia, indicating hostile hostile activity. Classified as defense because Finnish and Estonian authorities are actively investigating, inspecting the infrastructure, and remaining vigilant to mitigate impact and respond to potential threats.

Source URL

https://yle.fi/a/74-20133467

Open source

Provenance

Publisher: csv-import
Submitted: Feb 1, 2026, 00:14 UTC
Last updated: Nov 8, 2026, 22:02 UTC
Event time: Dec 25, 2024, 10:26 UTC

Published as a Defense Preparations signal with a public source and reviewer-approved assessment bands. See the methodology for how records are assessed.

Raw record

{
  "id": "c2635562-3072-4c4d-a909-6e1dd828e8dc",
  "url": "https://yle.fi/a/74-20133467",
  "source": "csv-import",
  "status": "approved",
  "category": "Energy & Infrastructure Attacks",
  "subcategory": "Critical Infrastructure Sabotage",
  "incident_type": "Power grids, pipelines",
  "country": "Finland",
  "source_reliability": "C",
  "info_credibility": "3",
  "tags": [
    "Estlink 2",
    "power outages",
    "energy infrastructure",
    "subsea cable",
    "Finland",
    "Estonia",
    "sabotage suspicion",
    "electricity transmission"
  ],
  "nodes": [],
  "countries": [],
  "where_text": "Undersea",
  "headline": null,
  "description": "Electricity transmission between Finland and Estonia via Estlink 2 was interrupted on December 25, 2024, at 12:26pm local time due to a fault under investigation by Finnish grid operator Fingrid. The 658 MW capacity subsea cable is jointly owned by Finland and Estonia and is vital for cross-border electricity flows. Fingrid's Operations Manager Arto Pahkin noted ongoing inspections at both cable endpoints and along the subsea route. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo confirmed the disruption does not impact Finland's electricity supply. The possibility of sabotage is being examined but not confirmed. Estlink 1 remains functional. Industry sources indicate no significant immediate effect on electricity prices. The incident is regarded as potentially complex to resolve due to subsea cable inspection needs. This event is of high importance for European grid stability and energy security.",
  "summary_short": "Estlink 2 subsea power transmission link between Finland and Estonia suffered an outage on Christmas Day, potentially due to sabotage.",
  "summary_extended": "On December 25, 2024, at 12:26pm local time (10:26 UTC), the Estlink 2 subsea electrical transmission line connecting Finland and Estonia experienced an outage while transferring 658 megawatts. Finnish grid operator Fingrid announced that the cause of the fault is under investigation and has not ruled out the possibility of sabotage. Both Finnish and Estonian authorities are inspecting the subsea cable and stations on both ends. Estlink 1 remains operational. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo stated the outage does not affect Finland's electricity supply; industry representatives indicated the impact on electricity prices will be minimal. Estlink 2 is a critical cross-border electricity link with a 650 MW capacity. The incident follows months of prior maintenance on the cable earlier in 2024.",
  "actor_primary": "Fingrid",
  "target_primary": null,
  "location_text": "Subsea cable Estlink 2 between Finland and Estonia",
  "location_region": null,
  "location_coordinates_lat": null,
  "location_coordinates_lon": null,
  "location_precision": "Regional",
  "is_aggressor_signal": true,
  "signal_type": "DEFENSE_PREP_SIGNAL",
  "is_hybrid_war_signal": true,
  "classification_complete": true,
  "hybrid_signal_complete": true,
  "classification_confidence": "High",
  "classification_rationale": "Classified as aggressor because the outage may be caused by sabotage on a critical subsea power cable linking Finland and Estonia, indicating hostile hostile activity. Classified as defense because Finnish and Estonian authorities are actively investigating, inspecting the infrastructure, and remaining vigilant to mitigate impact and respond to potential threats.",
  "event_time_utc": "2024-12-25T10:26:00.000Z",
  "end_time_utc": null,
  "event_time_confidence": "exact",
  "created_at": "2026-02-01T00:14:45.844Z",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-08T22:02:27.885Z",
  "reliability_band": "strong",
  "location_precision_band": "regional",
  "time_precision_band": "exact",
  "severity_band": "moderate",
  "attribution_confidence_band": "low",
  "attribution_basis": "single_source"
}

Public assessmentReliability: StrongSeverity: ModerateAttribution: LowSingle sourceTime: ExactLocation: Regional

Source reliability

Info credibility

Event time

Dec 25, 2024, 10:26 UTC

Event time confidence

exact

Location

Subsea cable Estlink 2 between Finland and Estonia

Primary actor

Fingrid

Country

Finland

Tags

Estlink 2, power outages, energy infrastructure, subsea cable, Finland, Estonia, sabotage suspicion, electricity transmission

Loading signal...

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