Russia expediates citizenship for Transnistria residents, linking it legally to military protection, signaling territorial claims and escalating hybrid threats; EU and partners urged to act decisively against sustained conflict and grey-zone economy.

On 15 May 2026, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree establishing an expedited pathway to Russian citizenship for residents of the Transnistrian region, waiving standard residency, language proficiency, and civic testing requirements. This follows the precedent set on 24 April 2019 for residents of Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Ukraine. By 2026, approximately 220,000 residents of Transnistrian region (around half its population) hold Russian passports. Amendments to Russian law concurrently expanded legal grounds for deploying Russian armed forces abroad to protect Russian citizens, including protection against foreign or international judicial bodies. The decree is perceived by Ukrainian President Zelensky as a move to stake territorial claims. The Transnistrian conflict is described as deliberately sustained by Russia as a tool of instability, supported tacitly by networks within Moldova and certain European actors exploiting the region's grey economy. The region's economy has been declining due to loss of Russian gas subsidies and other factors, diminishing its viability outside reintegration. The local population is increasingly seeking Moldovan citizenship, which offers EU visa-free access and financial benefits. Sweden is engaged in supporting Moldova's EU integration, investing approximately €200 million over two years. The op-ed calls for collective EU, NATO, Moldova, Ukrainian, Romanian, and US efforts to dismantle the grey-zone economy and political complicities sustaining Transnistria as a security threat, applying sanctions consistently and pressing Moldovan political reforms. It emphasizes the need for proactive political will rather than passive observation, viewing the frozen conflict as an active threat sustained by Russia’s will and political convenience among other actors.