Dutch intelligence agencies AIVD and MIVD failed to anticipate Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine despite repeated warnings from American and British officials due to reliance on a unique intelligence source close to Putin, leading to a flawed assessment that the invasion was unlikely. The Dutch agencies trusted this proven source and interpreted troop deployments as negotiation leverage rather than preparations for invasion. This culminated in shock and self-criticism within the Dutch intelligence community as invasion began on 24 February 2022. The article details the timeline from late 2021 to early 2022, highlighting internal debates, clashes between Dutch and Anglo-American intelligence assessments, political conversations the intelligence influenced, division within Russlandhuis (the joint Dutch Russia intelligence unit), and the communication dynamics with US intelligence leading up to the invasion. It also analyzes the political and psychological context underpinning European skepticism toward US warnings, notably legacy mistrust from Iraq War intelligence failures.

Dutch intelligence agencies AIVD and MIVD failed to anticipate Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine despite repeated warnings from American and British officials due to reliance on a unique intelligence source close to Putin, leading to a flawed assessment that the invasion was unlikely. The Dutch agencies trusted this proven source and interpreted troop deployments as negotiation leverage rather than preparations for invasion. This culminated in shock and self-criticism within the Dutch intelligence community as invasion began on 24 February 2022. The article details the timeline from late 2021 to early 2022, highlighting internal debates, clashes between Dutch and Anglo-American intelligence assessments, political conversations the intelligence influenced, division within Russlandhuis (the joint Dutch Russia intelligence unit), and the communication dynamics with US intelligence leading up to the invasion. It also analyzes the political and psychological context underpinning European skepticism toward US warnings, notably legacy mistrust from Iraq War intelligence failures.