An in-depth analysis of Russia's military force expansion during the war with Ukraine from 2022 to mid-2026, authored by Greg Whisler and Michael Kofman. The article details the Russian military's exponential growth from a small invasion force in early 2022 to over 1.3 million authorized personnel by late 2024, focusing on recruitment strategies, formation of new units, and shifts in tactical approaches amid heavy casualties and operational challenges. Despite mass mobilizations, recruitment of contract soldiers, and creation of new mechanized and infantry units, Russia failed to achieve decisive battlefield breakthroughs due to Ukrainian technological adaptation, tactical innovation, and Western support. The war catalyzed a permanent restructuring and expansion of the Russian military, particularly along NATO borders (Finland, Baltic states), with significant investments in precision strike capabilities and drone integration. The report highlights stages including the initial invasion failures, fall 2022 partial mobilization (300,000 reservists), major 2023 recruitment (420,000 contract soldiers plus 80,000 volunteers), and continued but slowing expansion through 2024 and 2025. Russian operational tactics evolved from large mechanized assaults to smaller dismounted infantry attacks, facing increasing difficulties due to mines, drones, and prepared Ukrainian defenses. Despite recruiting over 400,000 contract soldiers annually in 2023 and 2024, attrition rates matched recruitment in 2025, leading to stagnation in force growth. The analysis warns of a post-war Russian military more reliant on mass mobilization and expanded ground forces, with enhanced deep-strike and precision capabilities that pose a strategic challenge to NATO in the Baltic-Nordic region.

An in-depth analysis of Russia's military force expansion during the war with Ukraine from 2022 to mid-2026, authored by Greg Whisler and Michael Kofman. The article details the Russian military's exponential growth from a small invasion force in early 2022 to over 1.3 million authorized personnel by late 2024, focusing on recruitment strategies, formation of new units, and shifts in tactical approaches amid heavy casualties and operational challenges. Despite mass mobilizations, recruitment of contract soldiers, and creation of new mechanized and infantry units, Russia failed to achieve decisive battlefield breakthroughs due to Ukrainian technological adaptation, tactical innovation, and Western support. The war catalyzed a permanent restructuring and expansion of the Russian military, particularly along NATO borders (Finland, Baltic states), with significant investments in precision strike capabilities and drone integration. The report highlights stages including the initial invasion failures, fall 2022 partial mobilization (300,000 reservists), major 2023 recruitment (420,000 contract soldiers plus 80,000 volunteers), and continued but slowing expansion through 2024 and 2025. Russian operational tactics evolved from large mechanized assaults to smaller dismounted infantry attacks, facing increasing difficulties due to mines, drones, and prepared Ukrainian defenses. Despite recruiting over 400,000 contract soldiers annually in 2023 and 2024, attrition rates matched recruitment in 2025, leading to stagnation in force growth. The analysis warns of a post-war Russian military more reliant on mass mobilization and expanded ground forces, with enhanced deep-strike and precision capabilities that pose a strategic challenge to NATO in the Baltic-Nordic region.