Carlo Masala, a German military expert, forecasts a potential Russian incursion into Estonia by 2028, highlighting Moscow's strategy to exploit NATO divisions regarding collective defense commitments. Masala cites recent intensified Russian provocations—including nineteen drones entering Polish territory, three fighter jets violating Estonian airspace, and Russian troops near Estonia's border—as tests of NATO's deterrence. He argues Russia is emboldened by perceived NATO hesitation and uses such acts to deepen fractures within the alliance. Masala frames these provocations as PR stunts aimed at signaling Russia can act without fear of consequences, raising concerns about NATO's readiness and unity to respond effectively.

Carlo Masala, a German military expert, forecasts a potential Russian incursion into Estonia by 2028, highlighting Moscow's strategy to exploit NATO divisions regarding collective defense commitments. Masala cites recent intensified Russian provocations—including nineteen drones entering Polish territory, three fighter jets violating Estonian airspace, and Russian troops near Estonia's border—as tests of NATO's deterrence. He argues Russia is emboldened by perceived NATO hesitation and uses such acts to deepen fractures within the alliance. Masala frames these provocations as PR stunts aimed at signaling Russia can act without fear of consequences, raising concerns about NATO's readiness and unity to respond effectively.