An international investigative team analyzed Russian military deployments around the Baltic states and Poland, finding that Russian special forces stationed in Kaliningrad have adapted their tactics to conduct sabotage and covert operations against Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, and other NATO countries. Satellite imagery confirms that Russian ground troop bases in Kaliningrad and western Russia are currently depleted of personnel and heavy equipment but can be rapidly resupplied within weeks if prioritized. Despite substantial losses in Ukraine, Russia is expanding its armed forces and military infrastructure, including upgraded radar systems in Chernyakhovsk. The elite 390th Special Purpose Intelligence Unit in Parusnoye (Kaliningrad) specializes in training saboteurs to operate clandestinely in NATO territory, especially targeting Lithuania's key port of Klaipėda and adjacent infrastructure critical for NATO logistics. Their training includes underwater sabotage and coordination of cyber and physical attacks. Lithuanian and Polish intelligence confirm increased sabotage attempts executed mostly by individuals recruited online with limited capabilities but aimed to create societal instability and undermine support for Ukraine. Polish officials reported arrests of actors involved in Russian-directed sabotage activities, including a failed attempt by a Ukrainian detainee linked to Russian services. Belarus supports Russian operations by modernizing its military bases near Lithuania, integrating forces with Russia, and enabling Russian use of its territory, although it has not committed troops directly to the Ukraine conflict. The report emphasizes that despite the depletion of Russian ground forces in Kaliningrad, Russia maintains formidable A2/AD capabilities, including Iskander ballistic missile systems, coastal defenses, and electronic warfare assets. Overall, Russia leverages a hybrid warfare approach in the Baltics focused on covert sabotage, strategic destabilization, and psychological operations to weaken NATO's regional posture and resolve, especially in anticipation of possible future conflict.

An international investigative team analyzed Russian military deployments around the Baltic states and Poland, finding that Russian special forces stationed in Kaliningrad have adapted their tactics to conduct sabotage and covert operations against Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, and other NATO countries. Satellite imagery confirms that Russian ground troop bases in Kaliningrad and western Russia are currently depleted of personnel and heavy equipment but can be rapidly resupplied within weeks if prioritized. Despite substantial losses in Ukraine, Russia is expanding its armed forces and military infrastructure, including upgraded radar systems in Chernyakhovsk. The elite 390th Special Purpose Intelligence Unit in Parusnoye (Kaliningrad) specializes in training saboteurs to operate clandestinely in NATO territory, especially targeting Lithuania's key port of Klaipėda and adjacent infrastructure critical for NATO logistics. Their training includes underwater sabotage and coordination of cyber and physical attacks. Lithuanian and Polish intelligence confirm increased sabotage attempts executed mostly by individuals recruited online with limited capabilities but aimed to create societal instability and undermine support for Ukraine. Polish officials reported arrests of actors involved in Russian-directed sabotage activities, including a failed attempt by a Ukrainian detainee linked to Russian services. Belarus supports Russian operations by modernizing its military bases near Lithuania, integrating forces with Russia, and enabling Russian use of its territory, although it has not committed troops directly to the Ukraine conflict. The report emphasizes that despite the depletion of Russian ground forces in Kaliningrad, Russia maintains formidable A2/AD capabilities, including Iskander ballistic missile systems, coastal defenses, and electronic warfare assets. Overall, Russia leverages a hybrid warfare approach in the Baltics focused on covert sabotage, strategic destabilization, and psychological operations to weaken NATO's regional posture and resolve, especially in anticipation of possible future conflict.