The article analyzes a shift in the perspective of Russia's expert community regarding the war against Ukraine, marking a transition from an expectation of default Russian victory to acceptance of non-victory and the need for totalitarian consolidation. It highlights mounting Russian economic struggles, increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian cross-border drone strikes disrupting Russian logistics and infrastructure, weakening of Russia's strategic leverage due to US-Iran conflict dynamics, and the loss of military initiative by Russian forces. Russian experts now acknowledge that destroying Ukraine as a state is unattainable, and that Russia must instead seek to maintain stability through militarization and strengthening of security apparatuses, akin to North Korea's prolonged ideological war posture. Consequences for Europe include entrenched systemic anti-Europeanism in Russia, persistent instability in Ukraine, potential normalization of Russian nuclear blackmail, weaponization of trade and economic dependencies, and intensification of Russian intelligence and influence operations abroad.

The article analyzes a shift in the perspective of Russia's expert community regarding the war against Ukraine, marking a transition from an expectation of default Russian victory to acceptance of non-victory and the need for totalitarian consolidation. It highlights mounting Russian economic struggles, increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian cross-border drone strikes disrupting Russian logistics and infrastructure, weakening of Russia's strategic leverage due to US-Iran conflict dynamics, and the loss of military initiative by Russian forces. Russian experts now acknowledge that destroying Ukraine as a state is unattainable, and that Russia must instead seek to maintain stability through militarization and strengthening of security apparatuses, akin to North Korea's prolonged ideological war posture. Consequences for Europe include entrenched systemic anti-Europeanism in Russia, persistent instability in Ukraine, potential normalization of Russian nuclear blackmail, weaponization of trade and economic dependencies, and intensification of Russian intelligence and influence operations abroad.