On 25 March 2026 at 03:43 local time, a drone from Russian airspace struck the chimney of Estonia’s Auvere power plant near Narva, with no casualties or damage to the electricity system.

Summary

In the early hours of 25 March 2026 at 03:43 local time (01:43 UTC), a drone crossing from Russian airspace struck the chimney of the Auvere power plant in northeastern Estonia near Narva, close to the Russian border. The attack was part of a broader drone incursion episode linked temporally and regionally to a Ukrainian drone strike against Russian targets, including the port of Ust-Luga. The drone exploded on impact but caused no injuries or significant damage to Estonia’s electricity infrastructure. Authorities, including the Estonian Internal Security Service and the Prosecutor General’s Office, launched investigations. Estonia’s Defence Forces indicated the drone was likely an explosive or decoy drone, not for surveillance, and suggested Russian electronic warfare and GPS jamming may have caused drones to stray into Estonian airspace. Several other drones violated Estonia’s airspace, with at least one landing in Latvia and several crossing over the Gulf of Finland. NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission was activated, including Italian jets from Ämari Air Base. Estonia imposed a no-fly zone over eastern Estonia, and alert systems were triggered, though public warnings initially caused confusion by being too broad. Estonian officials have stated the incident reflects spillover from the Ukraine conflict, with no increase in the direct threat to Estonia but highlight challenges of drone defence capability. Security experts called for improved counter-drone measures, noting current limitations that may only be addressed by 2027–28. The incident raised concerns over surveillance failures and the adequacy of current defence responses amid ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine and regional volatility.

Evidence

"The drone hit the plant’s chimney at 3.43am on 25 March." – Estonian Internal Security Service
"Several drones had violated the country’s airspace. One, he said, came down in Latvia; one struck the chimney at Auvere; and several others crossed Estonia’s maritime border over the Gulf of Finland." – Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur
"Russian electronic warfare, including GPS interference, had probably contributed to some of them losing their bearings and straying into Estonian airspace." – Defence Forces Commander Andrus Merilo
"The drone struck the chimney a couple of minutes after entering Estonian airspace and exploded on impact." – Margo Palloson, Internal Security Service
"Similar incidents may occur again... It is reasonable to assume that we will see more incidents of this kind." – Margo Palloson
"Estonia has abandoned the term 'drone wall', because dangerous drones might not approach only from the border." – Interior Minister Igor Taro
"Drones must be detected before they reach their target. Our counter-drone capability is inadequate and needs urgent investment." – Riho Terras, former Defence Forces commander
"No one was injured and Estonia’s electricity system was not damaged." – Enefit Power
"The Auvere plant remained operational and was currently in reserve because of electricity prices." – Andrus Durejko, Eesti Energia CEO
"It is not sensible to create the impression that we could build some kind of wall between ourselves and Russia so that nothing ever crosses it." – Prime Minister Kristen Michal
"Our aim is to avoid any unintended escalation, so we certainly cannot act against drones where there is even the slightest risk that our action could extend into Russian territory." – Defence Forces Commander Andrus Merilo

Classification

Confidence: High

The event clearly describes hostile cross-border drone incursion originating from Russian airspace hitting Estonian critical infrastructure, constituting aggressor activity. In response, NATO Baltic Air Policing was activated, a no-fly zone was imposed, and Estonian Defence Forces deployed additional units for detection and protection, demonstrating defense preparations.