The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) created a hypothetical scenario for a limited Russian incursion into Narva, Estonia. The scenario involves Russian agents seizing key buildings including Narva's town hall and museum, backed by drone waves and rocket strikes controlled from Russian territory, to hinder Estonian forces' retaking efforts. Russia would proclaim a 'Narva People's Republic' and call for Moscow's support. Estonian officials and security experts criticized the scenario as based on unrealistic assumptions, emphasizing no evidence of sizable secret Russian networks inside Estonia, nor a substantial local pro-Russian support. The scenario aims to test NATO unity and challenge Article 5 collective defense credibility. It warns of tactical use of disinformation, drone warfare, and small special forces units instead of large troop concentrations. ISW notes that a broader Russian invasion is unlikely amidst the ongoing Ukraine war but that smaller disruptive operations remain possible. Estonian experts argue their intelligence and allied presence would detect and neutralize such threats. The scenario envisions difficulties for NATO forces due to drone attacks on reinforcements and political hesitations among member states on activating collective defense over a limited territorial seizure. ISW urges NATO to preposition counter-drone systems, electronic warfare equipment, and trained units in the border area. Criticism highlights the scenario’s speculative nature and warns against Kremlin psychological operations aimed at fracturing Western alliance decision-making.

The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) created a hypothetical scenario for a limited Russian incursion into Narva, Estonia. The scenario involves Russian agents seizing key buildings including Narva's town hall and museum, backed by drone waves and rocket strikes controlled from Russian territory, to hinder Estonian forces' retaking efforts. Russia would proclaim a 'Narva People's Republic' and call for Moscow's support. Estonian officials and security experts criticized the scenario as based on unrealistic assumptions, emphasizing no evidence of sizable secret Russian networks inside Estonia, nor a substantial local pro-Russian support. The scenario aims to test NATO unity and challenge Article 5 collective defense credibility. It warns of tactical use of disinformation, drone warfare, and small special forces units instead of large troop concentrations. ISW notes that a broader Russian invasion is unlikely amidst the ongoing Ukraine war but that smaller disruptive operations remain possible. Estonian experts argue their intelligence and allied presence would detect and neutralize such threats. The scenario envisions difficulties for NATO forces due to drone attacks on reinforcements and political hesitations among member states on activating collective defense over a limited territorial seizure. ISW urges NATO to preposition counter-drone systems, electronic warfare equipment, and trained units in the border area. Criticism highlights the scenario’s speculative nature and warns against Kremlin psychological operations aimed at fracturing Western alliance decision-making.