Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service Director General Kaupo Rosin assessed Russian mobilization chances at 50-50, highlighting that everyone inside Russia is aware mobilization preparations are underway. He emphasized that Russian state-sponsored unconventional operations, including sabotage and false-flag attacks, are ongoing across Europe targeting defense industries, logistics, and supply chains supporting Ukraine. Attempted sabotage includes an arson attack on Milrem Robotics in Estonia on August 15, 2026, and planned assassination attempts like that on Rheinmetall CEO in Germany. Russia’s increasing aggression aims to undermine support for Ukraine but has failed. Economic pressure via Western sanctions is working, with Russia’s budget deficit projected to reach around 10 trillion rubles by year-end 2026, about half its defense budget. The Russian military has organized to enable smoother future mobilizations but faces challenges training, arming, and deploying large numbers. A large-scale mobilization of 300,000 to 500,000 troops would increase military pressure near Estonia’s borders. NATO maintains credible deterrence including exercises near Kaliningrad, signaling vulnerability of Russian exclave. Illegal migration from Belarus to Estonia is primarily organized by criminal groups but tacitly permitted by Belarusian authorities. Technical intelligence and open-source data collection pose rising intelligence risks. Estonia restricts some data access to mitigate exposures. Russia’s internal elite debates reflect concern over ongoing war costs and possible war termination. The article includes images of Kaupo Rosin, the attempted Milrem Robotics arson, a C-17 Globemaster landing in Riga (believed carrying CIA Director John Ratcliffe), Russian troops training in Rostov region, and Belarusian border signage. The interview was conducted by journalist Indrek Kiisler and published on September 1, 2026, at 17:06 UTC.

Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service Director General Kaupo Rosin assessed Russian mobilization chances at 50-50, highlighting that everyone inside Russia is aware mobilization preparations are underway. He emphasized that Russian state-sponsored unconventional operations, including sabotage and false-flag attacks, are ongoing across Europe targeting defense industries, logistics, and supply chains supporting Ukraine. Attempted sabotage includes an arson attack on Milrem Robotics in Estonia on August 15, 2026, and planned assassination attempts like that on Rheinmetall CEO in Germany. Russia’s increasing aggression aims to undermine support for Ukraine but has failed. Economic pressure via Western sanctions is working, with Russia’s budget deficit projected to reach around 10 trillion rubles by year-end 2026, about half its defense budget. The Russian military has organized to enable smoother future mobilizations but faces challenges training, arming, and deploying large numbers. A large-scale mobilization of 300,000 to 500,000 troops would increase military pressure near Estonia’s borders. NATO maintains credible deterrence including exercises near Kaliningrad, signaling vulnerability of Russian exclave. Illegal migration from Belarus to Estonia is primarily organized by criminal groups but tacitly permitted by Belarusian authorities. Technical intelligence and open-source data collection pose rising intelligence risks. Estonia restricts some data access to mitigate exposures. Russia’s internal elite debates reflect concern over ongoing war costs and possible war termination. The article includes images of Kaupo Rosin, the attempted Milrem Robotics arson, a C-17 Globemaster landing in Riga (believed carrying CIA Director John Ratcliffe), Russian troops training in Rostov region, and Belarusian border signage. The interview was conducted by journalist Indrek Kiisler and published on September 1, 2026, at 17:06 UTC.