The Baltic Defense Initiative, a Vilnius-based think tank, released a 2026 study projecting that Russia could force Lithuania into capitulation within 90 days in December 2027 by launching a devastating coordinated attack involving hypersonic missiles and over 170,000 Shahed drones, flattening critical infrastructure in Vilnius without any soldiers crossing the border. The scenario is based on verified weapon system capabilities and current military production trends and assumes a geopolitical backdrop of weakened NATO support due to anti-European movements in Europe and U.S. exhaustion from a prolonged Iran war. On Day 90, Moscow would issue an ultimatum demanding full Baltic acceptance of Russian occupation, threatening Riga and Tallinn next. The study identifies a constitutional gap in Lithuania regarding continuity of command if key leaders are incapacitated and proposes over 200 defense-focused recommendations inspired by the French post-WWII deterrence model. The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service assessment earlier in 2026 contradicts the likelihood of a near-term Russian attack, attributing reduced risk to enhanced Baltic defense spending and preparedness.

The Baltic Defense Initiative, a Vilnius-based think tank, released a 2026 study projecting that Russia could force Lithuania into capitulation within 90 days in December 2027 by launching a devastating coordinated attack involving hypersonic missiles and over 170,000 Shahed drones, flattening critical infrastructure in Vilnius without any soldiers crossing the border. The scenario is based on verified weapon system capabilities and current military production trends and assumes a geopolitical backdrop of weakened NATO support due to anti-European movements in Europe and U.S. exhaustion from a prolonged Iran war. On Day 90, Moscow would issue an ultimatum demanding full Baltic acceptance of Russian occupation, threatening Riga and Tallinn next. The study identifies a constitutional gap in Lithuania regarding continuity of command if key leaders are incapacitated and proposes over 200 defense-focused recommendations inspired by the French post-WWII deterrence model. The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service assessment earlier in 2026 contradicts the likelihood of a near-term Russian attack, attributing reduced risk to enhanced Baltic defense spending and preparedness.