Analyst George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War characterizes recent Russian activities—such as contraband balloons disrupting Lithuanian airports, increased drone incursions, and intelligence operations across NATO airspace—as Phase 0 of a deliberate Russian campaign to prepare for war against NATO. The Phase 0 campaign began in early September 2025 with a large-scale drone incursion into Poland and has since escalated, involving multiple NATO countries. These actions, according to Barros, are organized military acts aiming to create political and psychological conditions favorable to Russia ahead of potential kinetic conflict (Phase 1). NATO's response has been criticized as weak, with some member states hesitant to treat airspace violations as acts of war, risking normalization that would benefit Russia tactically. Barros warns that Russian objectives in a future conflict may be limited territorial incursions aimed at breaking NATO’s cohesion without triggering collective defense. He emphasizes that the kinetic phase is unlikely during the ongoing war in Ukraine but could begin within 12 months after that conflict subsides, urging NATO and Lithuania to deepen understanding of evolving Russian military tactics and improve readiness for conventional attacks.

Analyst George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War characterizes recent Russian activities—such as contraband balloons disrupting Lithuanian airports, increased drone incursions, and intelligence operations across NATO airspace—as Phase 0 of a deliberate Russian campaign to prepare for war against NATO. The Phase 0 campaign began in early September 2025 with a large-scale drone incursion into Poland and has since escalated, involving multiple NATO countries. These actions, according to Barros, are organized military acts aiming to create political and psychological conditions favorable to Russia ahead of potential kinetic conflict (Phase 1). NATO's response has been criticized as weak, with some member states hesitant to treat airspace violations as acts of war, risking normalization that would benefit Russia tactically. Barros warns that Russian objectives in a future conflict may be limited territorial incursions aimed at breaking NATO’s cohesion without triggering collective defense. He emphasizes that the kinetic phase is unlikely during the ongoing war in Ukraine but could begin within 12 months after that conflict subsides, urging NATO and Lithuania to deepen understanding of evolving Russian military tactics and improve readiness for conventional attacks.