According to Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2026 report, the ongoing war in Ukraine will continue without clear resolution, with Russia pushing for territory and hitting civilian centers, while Ukraine faces manpower shortages and escalates strikes inside Russia. Simultaneously, Russia is expected to open a second hybrid front against NATO across Europe, increasing gray-zone operations such as cyberattacks, sabotage of railways and energy infrastructure, drone incursions, airspace violations, and GPS jamming. These actions aim to weaken European support for Ukraine while staying below NATO’s collective defense trigger. NATO plans to respond more assertively in 2026, debating tougher air policing, armed surveillance drones, and enhanced cyber operations, raising risks of miscalculation. Russia views these hybrid tactics as essential for its strategic aims and Putin’s grip on power. The report highlights escalating risks of broader conflict and destabilization in Europe during 2026.

According to Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2026 report, the ongoing war in Ukraine will continue without clear resolution, with Russia pushing for territory and hitting civilian centers, while Ukraine faces manpower shortages and escalates strikes inside Russia. Simultaneously, Russia is expected to open a second hybrid front against NATO across Europe, increasing gray-zone operations such as cyberattacks, sabotage of railways and energy infrastructure, drone incursions, airspace violations, and GPS jamming. These actions aim to weaken European support for Ukraine while staying below NATO’s collective defense trigger. NATO plans to respond more assertively in 2026, debating tougher air policing, armed surveillance drones, and enhanced cyber operations, raising risks of miscalculation. Russia views these hybrid tactics as essential for its strategic aims and Putin’s grip on power. The report highlights escalating risks of broader conflict and destabilization in Europe during 2026.