Latvia is de facto at war with Russia through ongoing phases of hybrid warfare including sabotage and information operations. Recent escalations and NATO exercises signal credible threat levels. Experts urge stronger asymmetric responses and public awareness.

Military & Paramilitary OperationsUnconventional / ParamilitaryUse of 'little green men' (unmarked soldiers)

Aggressor

Summary

Interview with Jānis Garisons, former Latvian Defense Ministry state secretary and drone industry representative, discussing the current security situation vis-à-vis Russia. Garisons states Latvia is effectively in war with Russia through phases of hybrid warfare, including information operations, sabotage against critical infrastructure, and attacks. He highlights the recent intensified threat assessment by European states after a period of skepticism. Ukraine's strategic drone strikes have postponed Russia's conventional attack capability. Russia aims to undermine European financial support to Ukraine by spreading fear and sabotage. NATO's recent unannounced military exercises near Kaliningrad reflect reaction to credible threats or averted sabotage attempts. Garisons criticizes Europe's fixation on de-escalation, arguing for asymmetric military responses to Russian drone incursions. He notes political reluctance in Europe to escalate defensive measures, warning this could lead to full-scale war escalation. He stresses the need for public communication strategies that confront the reality of ongoing war phases and psychological preparedness alongside military capabilities. The interview touches on intelligence aspects around US official John Ratcliffe's flight to Moscow via Riga and assesses potential Russian hybrid threat tactics including sabotage, false flag drone attacks, and influence operations ahead of elections to destabilize EU support for Ukraine. Latvia and the wider Baltic region are viewed as targets in a complex conflict characterized by covert and overt hostile hybrid measures.

Classification

Confidence: High

The interview explicitly describes ongoing hybrid warfare activities including sabotage, influence operations, and covert attacks by Russia against Latvia and the wider European region. The evidence from multiple security officials and observed NATO responses corroborate an active hostile hybrid campaign.

Source URL

https://diena.lv/raksts/latvija/dienas-intervijas/mes-esam-kara-ar-krieviju-bet-negribam-to-sev-atzit

Open source

Provenance

Publisher: extension
Submitted: Oct 1, 2026, 11:07 UTC
Last updated: Nov 15, 2026, 02:40 UTC
Event time: Oct 1, 2023, 00:00 UTC

Published as a hybrid-warfare signal with a public source and reviewer-approved assessment bands. See the methodology for how records are assessed.

Raw record

{
  "id": "ebba0fe3-66ec-466a-a4f5-4607df10af03",
  "url": "https://diena.lv/raksts/latvija/dienas-intervijas/mes-esam-kara-ar-krieviju-bet-negribam-to-sev-atzit",
  "source": "extension",
  "status": "processed",
  "category": "Military & Paramilitary Operations",
  "subcategory": "Unconventional / Paramilitary",
  "incident_type": "Use of 'little green men' (unmarked soldiers)",
  "country": "Latvia",
  "source_reliability": "F",
  "info_credibility": "6",
  "tags": [
    "Russia",
    "Latvia",
    "Hybrid Warfare",
    "Drone Attacks",
    "NATO Exercises",
    "Sabotage",
    "Information Operations",
    "Psychological Warfare",
    "european security",
    "John Ratcliffe",
    "baltic sea region"
  ],
  "nodes": [],
  "countries": [],
  "where_text": "Land",
  "headline": null,
  "description": "Interview with Jānis Garisons, former Latvian Defense Ministry state secretary and drone industry representative, discussing the current security situation vis-à-vis Russia. Garisons states Latvia is effectively in war with Russia through phases of hybrid warfare, including information operations, sabotage against critical infrastructure, and attacks. He highlights the recent intensified threat assessment by European states after a period of skepticism. Ukraine's strategic drone strikes have postponed Russia's conventional attack capability. Russia aims to undermine European financial support to Ukraine by spreading fear and sabotage. NATO's recent unannounced military exercises near Kaliningrad reflect reaction to credible threats or averted sabotage attempts. Garisons criticizes Europe's fixation on de-escalation, arguing for asymmetric military responses to Russian drone incursions. He notes political reluctance in Europe to escalate defensive measures, warning this could lead to full-scale war escalation. He stresses the need for public communication strategies that confront the reality of ongoing war phases and psychological preparedness alongside military capabilities. The interview touches on intelligence aspects around US official John Ratcliffe's flight to Moscow via Riga and assesses potential Russian hybrid threat tactics including sabotage, false flag drone attacks, and influence operations ahead of elections to destabilize EU support for Ukraine. Latvia and the wider Baltic region are viewed as targets in a complex conflict characterized by covert and overt hostile hybrid measures.",
  "summary_short": "Latvia is de facto at war with Russia through ongoing phases of hybrid warfare including sabotage and information operations. Recent escalations and NATO exercises signal credible threat levels. Experts urge stronger asymmetric responses and public awareness.",
  "summary_extended": null,
  "actor_primary": "Russian intelligence and military forces",
  "target_primary": null,
  "location_text": "Latvia and Baltic region",
  "location_region": null,
  "location_coordinates_lat": 56.879635,
  "location_coordinates_lon": 24.603189,
  "location_precision": "Regional",
  "is_aggressor_signal": true,
  "signal_type": "HYBRID_SIGNAL",
  "is_hybrid_war_signal": true,
  "classification_complete": true,
  "hybrid_signal_complete": true,
  "classification_confidence": "High",
  "classification_rationale": "The interview explicitly describes ongoing hybrid warfare activities including sabotage, influence operations, and covert attacks by Russia against Latvia and the wider European region. The evidence from multiple security officials and observed NATO responses corroborate an active hostile hybrid campaign.",
  "event_time_utc": "2023-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "end_time_utc": null,
  "event_time_confidence": "pm24h",
  "created_at": "2026-10-01T11:07:00.022Z",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-15T02:40:22.411Z",
  "reliability_band": "pattern",
  "location_precision_band": "regional",
  "time_precision_band": "within_24h",
  "severity_band": "moderate",
  "attribution_confidence_band": "high",
  "attribution_basis": "single_source"
}

Public assessmentReliability: Pattern fitSeverity: ModerateAttribution: HighSingle sourceTime: Same dayLocation: Regional

Source reliability

Info credibility

Event time

Oct 1, 2023, 00:00 UTC

Event time confidence

pm24h

Location

Latvia and Baltic region

Primary actor

Russian intelligence and military forces

Country

Latvia

Tags

Russia, Latvia, Hybrid Warfare, Drone Attacks, NATO Exercises, Sabotage, Information Operations, Psychological Warfare, european security, John Ratcliffe, baltic sea region

Loading signal...

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