Signal
Submitted
Feb 14, 2026, 12:22 UTC
Russian FSB and Belarusian KGB planned a false flag drone strike on an oil depot near the Belarus-Poland border to frame Ukraine on 10 October 2023.
On 10 October 2023, the Ukrainian Center for National Resistance reported that Russian (FSB) and Belarusian (KGB) security services reached an agreement to carry out a false flag operation on Belarusian territory. The operation targets the Brestoblnefteproduct oil depot near the village of Priluki in Brest region, approximately 2 km from the Belarus-Poland border, involving a planned drone attack. Belarusian underground sources stated that Wagner mercenaries conducted aerial reconnaissance of several potential targets in Belarus in August 2023. Ukraine's Defense Forces confirmed they operate only within Ukraine's borders and denied involvement in any attacks outside Ukraine. This provocation aims to reduce Russian public support for Ukraine by blaming Kyiv for the incident.
Confidence: High
The source explicitly reports Russian and Belarusian security services planning a hostile false flag operation targeting Belarusian infrastructure to frame Ukraine, indicating clear aggressor activity. No defensive preparation by Ukraine or allies was described.
Source URL
https://sprotyv.mod.gov.ua/spetssluzhby-rf-ta-rb-planuyut-provesty-operatsiyu-pid-chuzhym-praporom-na-terytoriyi-bilorusi
Published as a hybrid-warfare signal with a public source and reviewer-approved assessment bands. See the methodology for how records are assessed.
{
"id": "ed05eafc-a1ff-4793-b1ce-1cddac46f469",
"url": "https://sprotyv.mod.gov.ua/spetssluzhby-rf-ta-rb-planuyut-provesty-operatsiyu-pid-chuzhym-praporom-na-terytoriyi-bilorusi",
"source": "csv-import",
"status": "approved",
"category": "Military & Paramilitary Operations",
"subcategory": "Unconventional / Paramilitary",
"incident_type": "Use of 'little green men' (unmarked soldiers)",
"country": "Belarus",
"source_reliability": "C",
"info_credibility": "3",
"tags": [
"false flag operation",
"Belarus",
"FSB",
"KGB",
"Wagner Group",
"drone attack",
"proxy warfare",
"hybrid warfare",
"russian invasion"
],
"nodes": [],
"countries": [],
"where_text": "Land",
"headline": "Russian and Belarusian security services plan a false flag operation on Belarusian territory",
"description": "The Russian FSB and Belarusian KGB have agreed to conduct a false flag operation on Belarusian territory aimed at framing Ukraine for the attack. The intended target is the Brestoblnefteproduct oil depot near the village of Priluki in Brest region, about 2 km from the Belarus-Poland border. The planned attack involves a drone strike (UAV) on the facility. Belarusian underground sources also report that Wagner mercenaries conducted aerial reconnaissance of possible targets in Belarus in August 2023. Ukraine's Defense Forces operate exclusively within Ukraine and deny involvement. This provocation aims to reduce Russian public support for Ukraine.",
"summary_short": "Russian FSB and Belarusian KGB planned a false flag drone strike on an oil depot near the Belarus-Poland border to frame Ukraine on 10 October 2023.",
"summary_extended": "On 10 October 2023, the Ukrainian Center for National Resistance reported that Russian (FSB) and Belarusian (KGB) security services reached an agreement to carry out a false flag operation on Belarusian territory. The operation targets the Brestoblnefteproduct oil depot near the village of Priluki in Brest region, approximately 2 km from the Belarus-Poland border, involving a planned drone attack. Belarusian underground sources stated that Wagner mercenaries conducted aerial reconnaissance of several potential targets in Belarus in August 2023. Ukraine's Defense Forces confirmed they operate only within Ukraine's borders and denied involvement in any attacks outside Ukraine. This provocation aims to reduce Russian public support for Ukraine by blaming Kyiv for the incident.",
"actor_primary": "Russian FSB",
"target_primary": null,
"location_text": "Brestoblnefteproduct oil depot, near Priluki village, Brest region, Belarus",
"location_region": "Brest region",
"location_coordinates_lat": 51.45,
"location_coordinates_lon": 23.7,
"location_precision": "Approximate",
"is_aggressor_signal": true,
"signal_type": "HYBRID_SIGNAL",
"is_hybrid_war_signal": true,
"classification_complete": true,
"hybrid_signal_complete": true,
"classification_confidence": "High",
"classification_rationale": "The source explicitly reports Russian and Belarusian security services planning a hostile false flag operation targeting Belarusian infrastructure to frame Ukraine, indicating clear aggressor activity. No defensive preparation by Ukraine or allies was described.",
"event_time_utc": "2023-10-10T09:30:00.000Z",
"end_time_utc": null,
"event_time_confidence": "unknown",
"created_at": "2026-02-14T12:22:56.038Z",
"updated_at": "2026-11-04T08:35:32.139Z",
"reliability_band": "strong",
"location_precision_band": "approximate",
"time_precision_band": "unknown",
"severity_band": "moderate",
"attribution_confidence_band": "high",
"attribution_basis": "single_source"
}Source reliability
C
Info credibility
3
Event time
Oct 10, 2023, 09:30 UTC
Event time confidence
unknown
Location
Brestoblnefteproduct oil depot, near Priluki village, Brest region, Belarus
Region
Brest region
Primary actor
Russian FSB
Country
Belarus
Tags
false flag operation, Belarus, FSB, KGB, Wagner Group, drone attack, proxy warfare, hybrid warfare, russian invasion
Signal
Submitted
Feb 14, 2026, 12:22 UTC
Russian FSB and Belarusian KGB planned a false flag drone strike on an oil depot near the Belarus-Poland border to frame Ukraine on 10 October 2023.
On 10 October 2023, the Ukrainian Center for National Resistance reported that Russian (FSB) and Belarusian (KGB) security services reached an agreement to carry out a false flag operation on Belarusian territory. The operation targets the Brestoblnefteproduct oil depot near the village of Priluki in Brest region, approximately 2 km from the Belarus-Poland border, involving a planned drone attack. Belarusian underground sources stated that Wagner mercenaries conducted aerial reconnaissance of several potential targets in Belarus in August 2023. Ukraine's Defense Forces confirmed they operate only within Ukraine's borders and denied involvement in any attacks outside Ukraine. This provocation aims to reduce Russian public support for Ukraine by blaming Kyiv for the incident.
Confidence: High
The source explicitly reports Russian and Belarusian security services planning a hostile false flag operation targeting Belarusian infrastructure to frame Ukraine, indicating clear aggressor activity. No defensive preparation by Ukraine or allies was described.
Source URL
https://sprotyv.mod.gov.ua/spetssluzhby-rf-ta-rb-planuyut-provesty-operatsiyu-pid-chuzhym-praporom-na-terytoriyi-bilorusi
Published as a hybrid-warfare signal with a public source and reviewer-approved assessment bands. See the methodology for how records are assessed.
{
"id": "ed05eafc-a1ff-4793-b1ce-1cddac46f469",
"url": "https://sprotyv.mod.gov.ua/spetssluzhby-rf-ta-rb-planuyut-provesty-operatsiyu-pid-chuzhym-praporom-na-terytoriyi-bilorusi",
"source": "csv-import",
"status": "approved",
"category": "Military & Paramilitary Operations",
"subcategory": "Unconventional / Paramilitary",
"incident_type": "Use of 'little green men' (unmarked soldiers)",
"country": "Belarus",
"source_reliability": "C",
"info_credibility": "3",
"tags": [
"false flag operation",
"Belarus",
"FSB",
"KGB",
"Wagner Group",
"drone attack",
"proxy warfare",
"hybrid warfare",
"russian invasion"
],
"nodes": [],
"countries": [],
"where_text": "Land",
"headline": "Russian and Belarusian security services plan a false flag operation on Belarusian territory",
"description": "The Russian FSB and Belarusian KGB have agreed to conduct a false flag operation on Belarusian territory aimed at framing Ukraine for the attack. The intended target is the Brestoblnefteproduct oil depot near the village of Priluki in Brest region, about 2 km from the Belarus-Poland border. The planned attack involves a drone strike (UAV) on the facility. Belarusian underground sources also report that Wagner mercenaries conducted aerial reconnaissance of possible targets in Belarus in August 2023. Ukraine's Defense Forces operate exclusively within Ukraine and deny involvement. This provocation aims to reduce Russian public support for Ukraine.",
"summary_short": "Russian FSB and Belarusian KGB planned a false flag drone strike on an oil depot near the Belarus-Poland border to frame Ukraine on 10 October 2023.",
"summary_extended": "On 10 October 2023, the Ukrainian Center for National Resistance reported that Russian (FSB) and Belarusian (KGB) security services reached an agreement to carry out a false flag operation on Belarusian territory. The operation targets the Brestoblnefteproduct oil depot near the village of Priluki in Brest region, approximately 2 km from the Belarus-Poland border, involving a planned drone attack. Belarusian underground sources stated that Wagner mercenaries conducted aerial reconnaissance of several potential targets in Belarus in August 2023. Ukraine's Defense Forces confirmed they operate only within Ukraine's borders and denied involvement in any attacks outside Ukraine. This provocation aims to reduce Russian public support for Ukraine by blaming Kyiv for the incident.",
"actor_primary": "Russian FSB",
"target_primary": null,
"location_text": "Brestoblnefteproduct oil depot, near Priluki village, Brest region, Belarus",
"location_region": "Brest region",
"location_coordinates_lat": 51.45,
"location_coordinates_lon": 23.7,
"location_precision": "Approximate",
"is_aggressor_signal": true,
"signal_type": "HYBRID_SIGNAL",
"is_hybrid_war_signal": true,
"classification_complete": true,
"hybrid_signal_complete": true,
"classification_confidence": "High",
"classification_rationale": "The source explicitly reports Russian and Belarusian security services planning a hostile false flag operation targeting Belarusian infrastructure to frame Ukraine, indicating clear aggressor activity. No defensive preparation by Ukraine or allies was described.",
"event_time_utc": "2023-10-10T09:30:00.000Z",
"end_time_utc": null,
"event_time_confidence": "unknown",
"created_at": "2026-02-14T12:22:56.038Z",
"updated_at": "2026-11-04T08:35:32.139Z",
"reliability_band": "strong",
"location_precision_band": "approximate",
"time_precision_band": "unknown",
"severity_band": "moderate",
"attribution_confidence_band": "high",
"attribution_basis": "single_source"
}Source reliability
C
Info credibility
3
Event time
Oct 10, 2023, 09:30 UTC
Event time confidence
unknown
Location
Brestoblnefteproduct oil depot, near Priluki village, Brest region, Belarus
Region
Brest region
Primary actor
Russian FSB
Country
Belarus
Tags
false flag operation, Belarus, FSB, KGB, Wagner Group, drone attack, proxy warfare, hybrid warfare, russian invasion