Lithuania’s intelligence highlights Russia threat in 2024 annual report

Cyber & Information WarfareInformation OperationsPropaganda & disinformation campaigns

AggressorDefense

Summary

Lithuania’s 2024 National Threat Assessment by intelligence agencies underscores persistent Russian hybrid warfare threats, including disinformation and espionage, along with Belarusian complicity.

On March 7, 2025, Lithuania's State Security Department (VSD) and the Second Department of Operational Services (AOTD) presented their 2024 National Threat Assessment. The report underscores Russia as the principal threat to Lithuania's national security and regional stability, emphasizing ongoing Russian hybrid warfare tactics such as cyber and disinformation attacks, espionage, and attempts at political and societal destabilization. Belarus is highlighted as supporting Russia’s destabilizing actions. Lithuania’s intelligence agencies stress the need for sustained countermeasures, including enhanced security vigilance and cooperation with NATO and EU allies to counteract these threats. The assessment also covers concerns about Russian influence operations against Lithuania’s democratic process and sovereignty.

Classification

Confidence: High

The article clearly describes aggressive hybrid warfare and espionage activities by Russia and Belarus targeting Lithuania, establishing aggressor classification; simultaneously, it details Lithuania's intelligence assessments and calls for increased defensive vigilance and alliance cooperation, justifying defense prep classification.

Source URL

https://lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2506356/lithuania-s-intelligence-plays-up-russia-threat-in-annual-report

Open source

Provenance

Publisher: csv-import
Submitted: Feb 1, 2026, 00:14 UTC
Last updated: Nov 8, 2026, 21:17 UTC
Event time: Mar 7, 2025, 00:00 UTC

Published as a Defense Preparations signal with a public source and reviewer-approved assessment bands. See the methodology for how records are assessed.

Raw record

{
  "id": "f4a03ac9-c5ec-4a57-b235-6781d6452f48",
  "url": "https://lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2506356/lithuania-s-intelligence-plays-up-russia-threat-in-annual-report",
  "source": "csv-import",
  "status": "approved",
  "category": "Cyber & Information Warfare",
  "subcategory": "Information Operations",
  "incident_type": "Propaganda & disinformation campaigns",
  "country": "Lithuania",
  "source_reliability": "C",
  "info_credibility": "3",
  "tags": [
    "Russia",
    "Belarus",
    "Lithuania",
    "State Security Department",
    "Hybrid Warfare",
    "Disinformation",
    "Espionage",
    "Political Subversion",
    "NATO",
    "EU",
    "National Threat Assessment"
  ],
  "nodes": [
    "Node 1: Borders",
    "Node 2: 5th Column",
    "Node 3: Political Disruptions"
  ],
  "countries": [],
  "where_text": "Land",
  "headline": "Lithuania’s intelligence highlights Russia threat in 2024 annual report",
  "description": "The Lithuanian State Security Department (VSD) and the Second Department of Operational Services (AOTD) released the 2024 National Threat Assessment emphasizing the sustained threat posed by Russia to Lithuania and the region. The report details continuing Russian hybrid warfare activities including disinformation campaigns, espionage, and efforts to destabilize Lithuania’s democratic institutions. Additionally, Belarus is noted as an accomplice in regional destabilization attempts. The intelligence bodies urge vigilance against political subversion and reinforce the significance of counterintelligence and security cooperation within NATO and the EU framework.",
  "summary_short": "Lithuania’s 2024 National Threat Assessment by intelligence agencies underscores persistent Russian hybrid warfare threats, including disinformation and espionage, along with Belarusian complicity.",
  "summary_extended": "On March 7, 2025, Lithuania's State Security Department (VSD) and the Second Department of Operational Services (AOTD) presented their 2024 National Threat Assessment. The report underscores Russia as the principal threat to Lithuania's national security and regional stability, emphasizing ongoing Russian hybrid warfare tactics such as cyber and disinformation attacks, espionage, and attempts at political and societal destabilization. Belarus is highlighted as supporting Russia’s destabilizing actions. Lithuania’s intelligence agencies stress the need for sustained countermeasures, including enhanced security vigilance and cooperation with NATO and EU allies to counteract these threats. The assessment also covers concerns about Russian influence operations against Lithuania’s democratic process and sovereignty.",
  "actor_primary": "Russia",
  "target_primary": null,
  "location_text": null,
  "location_region": null,
  "location_coordinates_lat": null,
  "location_coordinates_lon": null,
  "location_precision": "Unknown",
  "is_aggressor_signal": true,
  "signal_type": "DEFENSE_PREP_SIGNAL",
  "is_hybrid_war_signal": false,
  "classification_complete": true,
  "hybrid_signal_complete": true,
  "classification_confidence": "High",
  "classification_rationale": "The article clearly describes aggressive hybrid warfare and espionage activities by Russia and Belarus targeting Lithuania, establishing aggressor classification; simultaneously, it details Lithuania's intelligence assessments and calls for increased defensive vigilance and alliance cooperation, justifying defense prep classification.",
  "event_time_utc": "2025-03-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "end_time_utc": null,
  "event_time_confidence": "pm24h",
  "created_at": "2026-02-01T00:14:51.307Z",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-08T21:17:47.808Z",
  "reliability_band": "strong",
  "location_precision_band": "unknown",
  "time_precision_band": "within_24h",
  "severity_band": "moderate",
  "attribution_confidence_band": "high",
  "attribution_basis": "single_source"
}

Public assessmentReliability: StrongSeverity: ModerateAttribution: HighSingle sourceTime: Same dayLocation: Unknown

Source reliability

Info credibility

Event time

Mar 7, 2025, 00:00 UTC

Event time confidence

pm24h

Location

Land

Primary actor

Russia

Country

Lithuania

Tags

Russia, Belarus, Lithuania, State Security Department, Hybrid Warfare, Disinformation, Espionage, Political Subversion, NATO, EU, National Threat Assessment

Nodes

Node 1: Borders, Node 2: 5th Column, Node 3: Political Disruptions

Loading signal...

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