Dutch intelligence agencies warn of escalating Russian hybrid attacks

Summary

On 19 Feb 2026, Dutch intelligence agencies warned of escalating Russian hybrid attacks across Europe involving cyber, sabotage, and influence operations, with recent Russian naval and aerial provocations in Dutch and allied airspace and sea zones.

Dutch intelligence services AIVD and MIVD issued a detailed warning on February 19, 2026, that Russia is intensifying hybrid warfare tactics throughout Europe. These include cyberattacks, sabotage, espionage, and influence operations designed to disrupt critical infrastructure and societal stability. The agencies highlighted a notable increase in aggressive operations since 2024, with examples including instructions to send incendiary packages abroad linked to Russian intelligence. Russia aims to manipulate politics, create division, hinder aid to Ukraine, and degrade European unity. The warning was contemporaneous with multiple hostile acts: Russian drones violated Polish airspace and were shot down by Dutch F-35 jets, Dutch fighters entered Estonian airspace, and a Russian frigate and cargo ship transited the Dutch Exclusive Economic Zone in the North Sea under Dutch naval surveillance. The Dutch navy vessel Zr.Ms. Den Helder actively escorted the Russian frigate Neustrashimy. These developments exemplify a Russian hybrid warfare campaign blurring peace and war, requiring enhanced deterrence and defense measures in Europe.

Evidence

'The Netherlands' intelligence agencies warned Thursday that Russia is increasing hybrid activities across Europe, combining cyberattacks, sabotage, and influence operations that could affect critical infrastructure and services.'
'Various Russian hybrid activities have been observed, including preparations for sabotage.'
'A case in which a man was instructed to send two packages to the United States and Canada, presumably on behalf of Russian intelligence.'
'The threat has grown more aggressive since 2024, with operations increasingly affecting physical environments rather than only online activity.'
'Russian drones entered Polish airspace and were shot down by Dutch F-35 jets, while Russian fighter jets entered Estonian airspace.'
'The Royal Netherlands Navy monitored a Russian frigate and cargo ship passing through the Dutch Exclusive Economic Zone in the North Sea.'
'The naval vessel Zr.Ms. Den Helder followed the Russian supply ship Neustrashimy, which is scheduled for commissioning next week, during exercises with an NH90 helicopter.'

Classification

Confidence: High

Classified as aggressor event because Dutch intelligence agencies report Russian hybrid attacks including sabotage, drone incursions, and naval provocations. Classified as defense prep event because Dutch military and intelligence are actively monitoring Russian naval movements, shooting down drones, and preparing exercises to counter threats.